Comment Re:Vertical integration in tech shouldn't be allow (Score 1) 33
Nothing ever went wrong when facebook IS the internet
https://www.amnesty.org/en/doc...
Comment Re:Peak Oil (Score 1) 128
It's about the robots... sort of.
Firstly, BP are betting on "peak demand", not peak oil. This is a reflection of the fact that renewables are in the exponential portion of the logistic curve whereas oil is not (coal has been out of the running for a few years now and gas might not be far behind as the low cost of gas is mainly because it is often a byproduct of oil fracking)
So why are renewables doing so well? Fundamentally because the fuel is free. OK a bit too obvious of a statement and needs more cake:
1. All energy extraction has a CAPEX/OPEX ratio.
2. With non-renewable resource, OPEX is high and increases over time as resources are depleted/more difficult to extract.
3. developments in technology (that require CAPEX) can drop the OPEX cost of non-renewables by opening up new resources (see fracking, offshore exploration geophysics, etc) but it is still an incremental step of new tech-> increasing cost of resource extraction until -> next new tech.
4. With renewables, resource depletion is just the available real estate to place these "energy factories" and there is more than enough real-estate available for renewables to completely replace fossil without it impacting capital costs.
5. So the OPEX (which is a tiny portion of the costs anyway) does not increase over time.
6. This means the only driver for cost of renewables is CAPEX which is dependent primarily on manufacturing costs whereby, as the market increases, economies of scale kick in and these costs come down... (e.g. Swanson's law).
7. However, there is further lever to create a "perfect storm" in that the economies of scale themselves are also in the exponential portion of the tech disruption logistic curve... in particular the price-elasticity of industrial robots and their broadening use. https://www.visualcapitalist.c...
8. The result is that the two exponential relationships of cost reduction vs. increased market size (for both renewable tech and manufacturing tech) can be multiplied together.
In summary, fasten your seat belts 'cos the ride is gonna get wild.
Firstly, BP are betting on "peak demand", not peak oil. This is a reflection of the fact that renewables are in the exponential portion of the logistic curve whereas oil is not (coal has been out of the running for a few years now and gas might not be far behind as the low cost of gas is mainly because it is often a byproduct of oil fracking)
So why are renewables doing so well? Fundamentally because the fuel is free. OK a bit too obvious of a statement and needs more cake:
1. All energy extraction has a CAPEX/OPEX ratio.
2. With non-renewable resource, OPEX is high and increases over time as resources are depleted/more difficult to extract.
3. developments in technology (that require CAPEX) can drop the OPEX cost of non-renewables by opening up new resources (see fracking, offshore exploration geophysics, etc) but it is still an incremental step of new tech-> increasing cost of resource extraction until -> next new tech.
4. With renewables, resource depletion is just the available real estate to place these "energy factories" and there is more than enough real-estate available for renewables to completely replace fossil without it impacting capital costs.
5. So the OPEX (which is a tiny portion of the costs anyway) does not increase over time.
6. This means the only driver for cost of renewables is CAPEX which is dependent primarily on manufacturing costs whereby, as the market increases, economies of scale kick in and these costs come down... (e.g. Swanson's law).
7. However, there is further lever to create a "perfect storm" in that the economies of scale themselves are also in the exponential portion of the tech disruption logistic curve... in particular the price-elasticity of industrial robots and their broadening use. https://www.visualcapitalist.c...
8. The result is that the two exponential relationships of cost reduction vs. increased market size (for both renewable tech and manufacturing tech) can be multiplied together.
In summary, fasten your seat belts 'cos the ride is gonna get wild.
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