Comment Re:Ingenuity? (Score 3, Interesting) 73
The first steps to real human space usage are: (1) building a prototype centrifugal habitat in low Earth orbit, and (2) building remote operated vehicles to mostly replace EVAs. (1) is necessary to determine what gravity is needed for humans to be able to live off-Earth for longer than a year without debilitating health consequences. It's unlikely that the moon's gravity will be enough for this, but maybe mars is, or maybe not. The cheapest way to figure this out is not to build a moon or mars colony first. Seems like it would make a lot more sense to know the health effects of moon gravity before planning the structure of a long-term moon installation. As for (2), using EVA for essentially all external maintenance, as is done on the space station, is not viable for accomplishing large amounts of work in space. Having humans present locally to operate the ROV is a big plus, however putting those humans in space suits just doesn't make sense. Just to have gloves that a human can squeeze without excessive fatigue, the person has to go through a lengthy decompression-recompression protocol. This is not viable for efficient and effective everyday work. Suited humans likely have their place, but most maintenance should be done by ROVs, just like it is done on deepwater installations on Earth.
Until these two things are on the agenda, manned spaceflight seems to be just a vanity project targeted at space tourism (short-term visits) or showing up other nations. (Note that the push for effective, affordable heavy lift is separate and has many other benefits outside manned spaceflight.)