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Comment Annual growth ok, but remember the starting point (Score 1) 402

A 45% annual growth sounds great, but you have to remember that right now only a very small percentage of power is generated using photovoltaic solar cells. Just taking the share of PV solar energy from the graph on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy:_world_resourc es_and_consumption tells me that right now the global share is at about 0.04% (!!). Assuming for a moment that the 45% annual growth will remain constant, it will take about 15 years (!) for the global market share of PV solar electricity to reach even 10% (0.04 * 1.45^15 = 10.5%). Of course we don't know how fast it will start growing when the prices really become competitive with the fossils, but I think there is always a limit to the amount of growth that the market can support (given the time it takes to set up new production capacity).

This is basically true for any new product, so also for all other renewables and fancy stuff like nuclear fusion. Even if the adoption rate is large, it takes a long time to reach a large market penetration if you start from zero!

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