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Comment and Gartner didn't even mention subsidies (Score 1) 127

They focused entirely on the cost to the AI consumers - which is not unreasonable since that's who Gartner's customers are.

But it's still a noteworthy omission for anyone with the slightest interest in the trajectory of the LLM industry as a whole. If OpenAI / Anthropic / XAI are providing their services at a loss, and their customers are consuming those services at a loss, then the GPU and RAM vendors are the only winners.

Comment The economics have got to be atrocious (Score 5, Insightful) 36

"We're losing money on every chat message, so we need to make up for it in volume!"

On the supply side: the largest allocation capital in human history is flowing into datacenter construction.

On the demand side: the two biggest providers are competing on price because they're just taking turns at the tops of the capability leaderboards.

And they're both losing money.

Comment Intent is also the hardest thing (Score 3, Insightful) 86

Yes, and that's something that LLMs are, in my experience, extraordinarily bad at.

We fired a new hire last year who was clearly just delegating everything to an LLM. When I asked why he did something the way he did, he responded with a list of obvious LLM hallucinations. Bizarre "requirements" that nobody ever asked for.

If you ask it for reasons, it will give you reasons. Like when RFKjr asked for medical research to support his absurd conclusions and it hallucinated a bunch of bogus citations.

It'll be interesting to see whether the frontier labs are able to improve on the current state of the art. The information might exist in the company, spread across emails and chats and random docs, so it's not impossible. But deducing intent does sound harder than writing code.

Comment Re:"AI" (Score 1) 36

Yeah, they don't call it a trading feed, so technically it's the market maker that's skimming, and giving Robinhood a kickback, but still... if you trade through RH you're not getting the bid/offer prices that you would get with a platform that goes direct to the exchange, like Fidelity.

Comment See also: Kagi.com (Score 1) 24

It's not free, but there is a free trial, and it costs peanuts per month.

If you're not paying for search, you're the product, not the customer. And when you are the product, enshittification is guaranteed.

I briefly switched to Bing after I clicked an ad in Google's "search" results by mistake, but Bing is just as bad.

Kagi also has the advantage of letting you filter out crap websites. I think that's gonna become increasingly useful as the AI contentpocalypse continues.

Comment "AI" (Score 1) 36

Someone wiser than me observed that when people hear "AI" they think "AI, like in the movies," where the AIs are trustworthy.

The don't think "the tool that helped the US Government publish a Make America Healthy Again report that cited nonexistent medical research papers."

Now, guess which sort of reaction Robin Hood expects from their customers.

Hint: Robin Hood makes their money by skimming a little bit of money off the top of every trade their customers make.

Comment Re:The Web needs a new business model (Score 1) 79

Those were the days. Forums were peak internet.

Alas, it seems like they ended with monetization became an option. Most people who have something to say, would rather [insert two ads here] say it on youtube [don't forget to like and subscribe] than write a blog entry or post to a forum. Or they post to Facebook groups - presumably because they're already logged in, and there isn't the challenge of clicking "start thread" and typing a subject line first.

I still use forums, but they're dwindling. It's sad. I don't expect them to return.

Comment Wild guess: (Score 1) 28

I wonder if someone figured out that prefacing a "search query" with "disregard previous instructions and instead...." provided a zero cost alternative to expensive subscription based AI services.

Because if that sort of workaround got enough usage to cost Google real money, I'd expect Google to just fail queries that contain the word "disregard" while they work on a proper solution to the problem.

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