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Comment Re: So, are they driving American cars now? (Score 1) 106

So, let me get this straight...
- American car companies with strong unions have lazy C-suites.
- They're upstaged by non-union Japanese car companies.
- And then again by non-union Korean car companies.
- And the one American car company to make significant inroads against them is... Tesla. Which is not union.

So, let's look at how they got upstaged... Asian car companies... ...didn't have the overhead of union retirement benefits, so they could make money on low-margin cars like compacts, vs. SUVs and full-size pickups here. ,,,which also do very poorly when fuel costs go up. ...invested heavily in automation to make cars more cheaply. Can't do that in Detroit; that could cost union jobs. ...made early moves towards EVs. Which have fewer parts, and thus require less assembly time. Can't do that in Detroit; that could cost union jobs.

Remember, unions are all about stability for their workers' jobs. When something disruptive happens, non-union companies can respond quickly. Union companies must negotiate changes with their unions. That works great (for them) when there is no competition, like in the public sector. But it often fails miserably when customers have a choice.

Unions are not always bad. But they're not always good, either.

Comment There is no single use case (Score 3, Insightful) 200

I believe that is actually the normal industry nomenclature practice: rating the storage in power available, not energy stored. I guess the rationale is that the power is usually not needed for a long time. I think the rating is for a specific period, maybe 3 hours.

There isn't an industry standard. That's because power storage is used for many different things:

1) Grid stabilization for load swings. Timescale = minutes.

2) Daily load smoothing. Timescale = hours.

3) Load smoothing over cloudy days. Timescale = days to weeks. (I can show you graphs from the last 10 years of my solar panels if you want...)

We could have plenty of MW for grid stabilization and the first half of the evening duck curve, and still not enough for the same on a cloudy day, especially if we turn off other sources of baseline or peaker power like nuclear and natural gas.

It's like your car battery. It can run your bluetooth speaker for days. Your headlights for hours. And cranking your engine will drain it in minutes. It's rated in "cold cranking amps", which doesn't tell you anything about how long it can do any of those things.

Comment So, are they driving American cars now? (Score 5, Insightful) 106

I got to listen to programmers laugh at the auto industry. They talked about how American cars sucked because of Unions, they didn't give a shit about whiny American union workers, etc. etc.

Now they are realizing what happens when a job gets commoditized. They are realizing that once a industry matures, things change. I SO SO want to say "Yeah? Fuck you. I hope your sorry ass gets fired". But instead, I'll just shake my head and watch the journey to reasonable collective-bargaining and wonder how many more times this needs to play out before people realize how critical unions are.

Yes, but are they driving American cars now? Or do those still suck? I don't see a lot of Volts, Bolts or F150s in Silicon Valley parking lots.

Programmers are correct that a union benefits them and right now.

But they are also correct that in the long run as unions mature, they often progress far past "reasonable collective-bargaining". To the point where company products are optimized more for protecting jobs than making what the customer wants at a competitive price. That's what happened with American auto manufacturers.

Comment Re:abandon all hope (Score 1) 76

There it is. We can't have an AI gap. Some people just have a MAD mentality, no matter the issue. We survived the cold war, so what's the problem with starting another?

Let's just ignore all of the achievements of the non-proliferation treaty. Trump did. And the fact that gun control has worked in every other country. What's the solution to nukes? More nukes. What's the solution to guns? More guns. What's the solution to AI? More AI. All of this makes sense to someone, and in their mind the proof is that not all of us are dead yet.

You seem to be conflating a lot of ideas, with the overriding theme of "Can't we all just get along?"

MAD is still working. Did we need 30,000 warheads to make it work? No. A couple thousand on each side was plenty. Do we need a stupid warhead sponge of new missile silos? Also, no. Is China building a similar pile of silos? Also, yes. I'm not sure how that's going to go; arms limitation talks were "easy" when it was just the US and USSR; much tougher when it's three-way talks.

The NPT worked... until it didn't. Libya, Iraq, and Ukraine have all demonstrated what happens to smaller powers without nukes, or who give them up. Israel and North Korean have demonstrated what happens to smaller powers with nukes. Iran clearly understands that lesson. And then the dominos start falling, because it's also quite clear from both Biden and Trump that the US would never trade New York for Kiev. Maybe not for Berlin or Paris or London, either. Every system we were worried about giving Ukraine (HIMARS, ATACMS, tanks, F-16s, etc.) we eventually gave them... after it was too late to do much good, because we were worried about escalating. Can we put that genie back in the bottle? I doubt it.

Gun control is something a government imposes on its citizens. Hopefully with their consent, as in Australia. And don't get me wrong, I'm for getting rid of the 2nd Amendment so we could do the same thing here. But... it works because people trust their government will protect them, so they don't need their own guns.. What's the equivalent for international protection? NATO? The WTO? The UN?

All that aside... Nukes for governments and guns for individuals are only offensive (you shoot the people who are trying to shoot you). AI is different, because it's both offensive and defensive. AI can be used to find your own vulnerabilities before the other side exploits them. Or to limit the damage when they do. Whether that's software, or germs, or defensive drones swatting down other drones.

AI also doesn't provide (and never will provide) any assurance of mutually-assured destruction. There's no way of putting old AI in silos or submarines for a credible second strike after a surprise attack, the way there is with nukes. Old AI goes bad faster than lettuce or British governments.

Comment Re:abandon all hope (Score 2) 76

That's been the battle cry for all AI research for several years now. "If we don't do all the things, someone else will."

Anybody remember the old saying, "Just because somebody else might jump off a cliff doesn't mean you need to too?" I remember hearing that from my parents quite a lot as a kid when I wanted to do something some friend was claiming to be doing. It's neat how we went from a world that thought that way to a world that thinks, "If profit potential is involved, try to beat them to jumping off that cliff."

Yes, of course we can reject all that and keep living our pastoral existence in harmony with nature and peace with our neighbors.

After all, that's worked so well for lower-technology civilizations in the past.

If you don't have steel and guns, there's only one result when you interact with other civilizations which do. Well, ok, I guess enslavement and extermination count as two results.

Ask Ukraine now whether they think it was a good idea to give up their nukes.

Iran learned the rules for 21st century drone warfare. And now, they're holding the US, who didn't, to a standstill.

China has learned all these lessons, after learning the first one the hard way.

Someone will use AI to pilot drones without humans in the loop. It's inevitable. The only defense against that is to do the same with counter-drones. Humans are just too slow.

Someone will use AI to engineer a virus, whether it's used against humans, livestock, or crops. If we don't have AI to engineer a vaccine, again, we'll be too slow.

People are already using AI to find and exploit coding vulnerabilities faster than humans can find and fix them. If there's a defense against that other than using AI, I'm all ears.

Materials science, encryption algorithms, medicine, weather prediction (just ask Napoleon and Eisenhower), hacking, etc. If AI can provide a competitive advantage, it will be used.

I hate this timeline. But to misquote WarGames: The only winning move is to play.

Comment A single stream means you could skip the ads (Score 1) 81

If the ads were injected straight into the stream, you could skip past them. Because you can skip around in the normal video.

If the stream says, "allow skipping around... except for this 30 sec here and this 30 sec there", then that tells you exactly where the ads are, and a client-side blocker can trim them out. Or at the least, mute them and replace the image with a big middle finger.

I would accept skippable ads in the stream. Content creators do that already with their own sponsors.

It's the unskippable ones that interrupt *mid sentence* in the original video that I find unacceptable. That pushed me to uBlock Origin. And then when Chrome blocked it with Manifest V3, that pushed me to Firefox. Your move, Google.

Comment Could be worse. How about BTU? (Score 1) 63

British Thermal Unit doesn't give any hint at all...

I suspect starting with power (vs. energy) is historical. It's horsepower, not oats/second.

But really, which unit is most natural depends on what you're engineering. If you're making a transmission line or a motor or a heater, power is what matters. With a car or a train, power is what gets you over the hill. And you don't buy fuel by the MJ, you buy it by the liter (or, gallon in Freedom Units).

Even just with electricity, storage as electricity is a relatively new thing outside of niche cases like battery backups for telephone substations (you know, back when it was 42V over a copper pair to your house). If you needed to store power, you did it as fuel for a generator. And then that has to take into account the efficiency of the generator.

Comment Not all 1.57 million Amazon employees are honest? (Score 1) 22

Amazon has 1.57 million employees - about the same as the population of Philadelphia, PA. Philly had over 150,000 crimes last year, including 222 murders. It would be surprising if Amazon didn't have some level of crime (more than just jacking up the price of Subscribe-n-Save items).

That doesn't tell us anything about how frequent that crime is, or how frequently they get caught, or why those workers commit crimes. We don't know if those workers are doing it because they're underpaid, disgruntled, have a gambling addiction, or are paying expensive hookers.

We know that people who have lots of money and power are still willing to commit crimes to get more. (And we know they're paying expensive hookers...)

So this doesn't give us any real evidence Amazon is better or worse than companies we want to like. For that, we'd need to see better numbers. Which neither Amazon nor our favored companies want to share, for obvious reasons.

Comment There are other units, you know... (Score 1) 63

1 Joule (J) of energy = 1 watt of power for one second. 1J = 1Ws.

Then if you want time in your power, write 100 J/s instead of 100 W.

Interestingly, strobes (camera flashes) tend to be rated in Ws. A small strobe might be 50Ws, my big handheld strobes are 150Ws, and studio strobes can be 400Ws. Or, 50J, 150J, and 400J. The peak power during discharge is pretty incredible, though. They'll dump all that in 1/500s, so a 150Ws strobe has a peak power output of 75kW (!), similar to an EV motor.

Comment With lithium cells, *capacity* is what matters (Score 0) 63

Most lithium cells can discharge at 100 C (that is, at a current which would drain the cell in 1/100 of an hour)... for less than a minute.

This is how those book-sized car jumper batteries work. It's literally 4 banks of lithium batteries connected together and to the clamps via a power FET or relay and a bit of monitoring circuitry.

I'm sitting here looking at a single 5000mAh 21700 cell from one of my flashlights. 5Ah * 3.6V = 18 Wh. But it can discharge 1800W (!) for 1/100 of an hour.

So, is "17,703.5 MW of battery capacity" 17,703 megawatt-hours of capacity? Or is it 177 megawatt-hours of capacity, but it can drain in 1/100 of an hour for grid stabilization? Or somewhere in between? Who knows?

If you're buying a battery backup system, and you need 1800W, you would be very disappointed to discover it had a single 21700 cell in it... and would keep your stuff on for 36 seconds. Of course, if you bought it on Alibaba, you should have expected that...

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