Comment Statistical Credibility (Score 2, Insightful) 15
I don't know about these predictions...
They claim their machine is taking into account major population control factors, but all they really discuss is AIDS, mostly in South Africa. While this is most obviously and definitely a source of population reduction, in isn't the only one. thye mention nothing of war, other diseases, birth control usage, and other causes of infertility.
Obviously, no modern machine could take all these factors into account, leading me to question the credibility of this report. Yes, they did their research, yes their computer is powerful and impressive, but in the end, it's jsut a set of numbers that might, might, come close to accuracy about population growth (or lack thereof) in the next 100 years.
People seem to put to much stock into statistics these days. Just because they use numbers and cite their sources does not make them right. I could point out the statistical correlation between bread and 99% of all deaths in the last 100 years, using correct numbers, citing statistical data to back up my theory, and write it up intelligently with great flow charts, but that dosn't make bread the number one cause of death in the world.
They claim their machine is taking into account major population control factors, but all they really discuss is AIDS, mostly in South Africa. While this is most obviously and definitely a source of population reduction, in isn't the only one. thye mention nothing of war, other diseases, birth control usage, and other causes of infertility.
Obviously, no modern machine could take all these factors into account, leading me to question the credibility of this report. Yes, they did their research, yes their computer is powerful and impressive, but in the end, it's jsut a set of numbers that might, might, come close to accuracy about population growth (or lack thereof) in the next 100 years.
People seem to put to much stock into statistics these days. Just because they use numbers and cite their sources does not make them right. I could point out the statistical correlation between bread and 99% of all deaths in the last 100 years, using correct numbers, citing statistical data to back up my theory, and write it up intelligently with great flow charts, but that dosn't make bread the number one cause of death in the world.
Bottom line, I say don't trust statistics to the degree we are being asked to, numbers are representations of actual quantaties, not the quantaties themselves...
Just my twenty cents on the issue.
-Speldor
