And what you're saying about speculation is a natural side effect of an inelastic supply - or perhaps "slowly elastic" is the better description. When it takes a long time to increase supply and short periods of time for demand to change, it *necessitates* speculation.
When push comes to shove this one made it though because most people don't really care about using CFLs or incandescent, and nobody cares deeply about it. If we can knock a meaningful percent off our energy usage without seriously upsetting people, politicians will do it. Can't blame them.
As a side-note, I'm not sure about the math since it's an ad slogan, but I live in NYC and they had posters up for a while that said:
"If every New Yorker switched to CFL's it would save enough energy to power the MTA."
The subway and buses alone get about 7 million people a day to their jobs - and that's not even counting the massively popular above ground commuter trains. This is a measurable amount of energy we're talking about...
It should never be underestimated what a small change in energy demand can do to raise/lower prices (for all of us). Remember when the recession hit, and energy demand went down a few percent, and oil prices shot down 40%?
Also - thinking of each consumer making their own choice only affecting themselves is not accurate when you're in a market where your neighbors poor choices make it significantly more expensive for everyone.
Staff meeting in the conference room in %d minutes.