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Comment Re:I am such a dinosaur (Score 1) 83

The most important measure for OpenAI is R - C. Since physicists tell us that nothing can go faster than C, then, as the article posits, this all important quantity (P) is likely to be less than zero forever. Scientist have always been at a loss to explain why bubbles such as those we observe in AI where R is always less than C can form or persist. There is clearly some form of dark irrationality out there whose relative value can expand at times but which is eventually(*) counteracted by the force of rational arbitrage and thus ultimately leads to a big bang.

(*) Note Lord Keynes remark about the solvency of individuals vis-a-vis dark irrationality. Timing the big bang is often tricky.

Comment Not Convinced This Is New (Score 1) 174

c. 1990s when I was working on an econ PhD, I gave undergrad students a simple supply/demand problem as a homework exercise: given a simple linear downward sloping demand equation and a simple linear upward sloping supply equation, find the equilibrium market price/quantity. Fully 40% of the students in the class could not solve for the intersection of two lines.

Comment Re:Finance drama (Score 1) 60

the old cliche about the market staying irrational longer than you can stay solvent still applies.

As does a quote often attributed to the late economist Herbert Stein: "Something that cannot go on forever will eventually stop."

Stein's actual quote is more interesting, however:

What economists know seems to consist entirely of a list of things that cannot go on forever, and this may be one of them. But if it can’t go on forever it will stop. And if we never do anything that we can’t go on doing forever we will never do very much.

Comment Re: 4.3% (Score 1) 162

False, it only counts people who have been looking for work for the past 4 weeks

You have completely misinterpreted that. Anyone who has looked for work at any time during the past 4 weeks is counted as unemployed in the current month's statistic. You can apply for a job once each month for the next 100 years and you will be counted as unemployed in each monthly release during that 100 year period.

Furthermore, the data comes from a household survey, not from simply looking at unemployment insurance claims and it does, in fact, include college grads looking for their 1st job.

Comment Re:IRS Free File Fillable Forms (Score 1) 93

I've mailed paper forms a couple of times when I've gotten annoyed at the cost of commercial offerings. But, unfortunately, my dependent son gets denied when I file on paper. Seems his name is too long to fit the old COBOL bit that matches his name/SSN up against the SSA database, so the last two letters of his name get chopped off and don't match. This requires a call to the IRS where someone is able to fix it for me -- usually. Last time this happened was during covid when it was impossible to get anyone on the phone. Took a call to my US Senator's office to get it fixed.

Comment Re: 4.3% (Score 1) 162

it's based on a fundamentally bogus assumption that people who haven't found any for long enough aren't looking.

False. As long as a person continues to claim they are looking for work, they are counted as unemployed. Length of time out of work has nothing to do with this measure.

Economics, like all sciences, requires strict operational definitions of all variables.

Comment Re:4.3% (Score 1) 162

The BLS employment stats may have strict definitions that don't match your political tastes, but they are not manipulated. They are, in fact, one of the gold standards for social science statistical data.

It's not at all clear to me that we currently have low unemployment among those who would be seeking jobs if they thought they had a chance.

The labor force includes anyone who is employed plus anyone who is actively looking for work. The unemployment rate most often reported in the news is simply the number actively looking divided by the labor force. Why count people as unemployed if they are not looking for work? The Bureau of Labor Statistics also has numerous other measures that might better match what your politics desire.

Comment IRS Free File Fillable Forms (Score 4, Informative) 93

Will still be available AFAICT. Free File Fillable Forms are basically just the PDF forms which are connected to the IRS and are electronically processed by them. I've used them the past few years. They offer no hand holding like the commercial products so this does require you to understand your taxes and most of the basic forms.

Comment Re:SAS (Score 1) 27

SAS is headquartered in North Carolina. They have also had a long standing reputation as a great place to work.

I used their mainframe product in the 80s for my MSc. These days, I mostly use R and other open source tools and I suspect that these have put a big dent in their sales.

Comment Re:I'm not going to speak about the rest of the wo (Score 1) 85

Yes, while our kids will inherit the debt owed by the government, they will also inherit the bonds sold by the government to citizens to cover that debt.

But there is still a potential crowding out problem. Every $1 spent to buy a government bond is a $1 that is unavailable for investing in private enterprise. The real question is not if the debt is unsustainable, it is whether the ROI of the marginal $1 spent by the government paid for by debt is greater than the ROI of whatever private enterprise would have built with that $1. Governments do a lot of useful investing (roads, basic research, etc) that probably has reasonable ROI. However much of the deficit results from the vast transfer payments made by the government (Social Security, Medicare, food stamps and farm support). On average over a business cycle, deficits should cover the real investments while transfer payments over a business cycle should be covered by tax revenue.

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