Comment Re:Not as large as Mars (Score 1) 308
it was really funny to see that.
'News for nerds' no more
but there is a hint in submitter nickname, possibly he is just 10 years old
it was really funny to see that.
'News for nerds' no more
but there is a hint in submitter nickname, possibly he is just 10 years old
Your whole story is compromised by Trump move to make Mitt Romney to be a state secretary. Do you remember what Romney position on Russia?
No, he has a degree ( as he somewhere explained ), but rather likes b612 as a private company ( he is himself is not from government)
>Actually, the danger to a person being killed by an asteroid is not changed.
it changed - there are statistically only 6 asteroids out ~30 000 most big which could hit earth and do intersect earth orbit ( others just fly near - but not about to hit ).
Now we know that 95% 1km won't hit, this the probability that there are no dangerous 1 km asteroid now in collision course - is much higher. Then iff we know orbits of 100% of all 1 km asteroids - even if we don't have means to deflect them, but know that they are not on direct collision course they won't hit us ( but rather 30-100 meter asteroid will be among those 6 asteroids which are about to hit earth in foreseeable future ) - then probability to be killed by huge asteroid is 0 and only slight chance to be injured by small asteroid ( like those injured by Chelyabinsk asteroid ).
First, Scott does not mention, that most dangerous asteroids are found
>95% of 1 km size asteroids
>90% for 500 m size asteroids
~60-70% 300 m size asteroids
so yes, we know 1% of asteroids, but still - the danger now for a person to be killed by asteroid is more than 100 times less, than it was two decades ago
another problem with his video, that he omits to mention, that inner asteroids are either harmless, or if they intersect earth orbit - they could be tracked at dusk/dawn ( just like venus is visible - and venus is quite far from being able to hit earth, so closer asteroids and relatively big asteroids are easier to find )
then about finding inner asteroids with space crafts - it is not just B612 foundation, which deals with that , but there are other proposals
http://arxiv.org/abs/1503.0794... - which is really cheap ( though idea requires some more development )
or http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/1501.0... neocam - the paper has a proof that it is somewhat more realistic than B612 proposal and is not less efficient.
Let's exercise how much it might cost to desalinate water
best current tech to desalinate water is about $0.5 per cubic meter
11 trillion gallons ~ 42 cubic km of water or 42 billion cubic meters
thus the sum required is 21 billion dollars.
given that there are reasons to think that cost might be reduced - the solution looks costly but hardly unmanageable
how? easy.
Build model and verify it with available data. There could be some errors, but not much. If model holds for 10 years of new asteroids found - it is good enough.
The report is saying that the current efforts and projected efforts will not be enough to meet the 90% goal by 2020 given that only 10% of the estimated target asteroids have been found.
this is pretty much known to everybody. Exactly only telescopes in space or LSST could perform task and they are scheduled to be launched in 20s - so after 2020
given that only 10% of the estimated target asteroids have been found.
the thing is that more than 70% of 300m asteroids are found, about 90% of 500m are found and 95% of 1km and larger are found, so 10% are more about most small asteroids ( and again there is no fault of NASA in that - there are just no money from congress to build LSST now )
Funding is one aspect; however, the report also asserts that even if the budget were increased significantly the current program's structure will probably not be efficient enough to take advantage of increases and recommends a change in management structure.
it does not depend on structure at all.
Either launch neocam satellite or build LSST - and structure could keep to work just fine. But any number of small telescopes won't make any difference
The use of anthropomorphic terminology when dealing with computing systems is a symptom of professional immaturity. -- Edsger Dijkstra