While that sounds pretty good, I'm fairly certain from a logical standpoint the odds of impacting the moon are as good or worse than the odds of leaving orbit and flying out into space. (Especially with the low gravity levels of the moon.)
I'm less than certain. Intersecting with the Moon would only require changes in ellipticity, whereas causing the satellite to become unbound would require a considerable increase in the satellite's kinetic energy.
The earth is like a tiny grain of sand, only much, much heavier.