Re:RealClimate links (Score 1)

The article cites high solar activity in the last 60 years or so, compared with the last 1200 years (the results quoted are far from absolute and trends are not certain - the best record being the 400 year sun spot record). There is the assumption that the high solar activity would have a fixed extra heat input which would cause a fixed temperature increase. The actual case is more complex. Higher temperatures result in more CO2 being released by biological activity - plant decomposition and release of frozen plant matter into the decomposition cycle. I believe that the solubility of gases also decreases with temperature, resulting in release of oceanic CO2. These features, coupled with the CO2 from human activity would cause a continued warming effect from any increase in solar irradiance, resulting in a moving equilibrium. If there is an effect due to solar activity, altering the level of cosmic rays striking the earth's atmosphere, the consequence of that effect is not clear. The postulated effect of reduced cloud cover due to a shortage of cosmic particles in the atmosphere, resulting in a reduced albedo and increased solar warming would hardly account for record hurricane seasons. Further, increased solar activity should provide a wealth of ion-forming medium energy particles, offsetting any lack of cosmic rays. The result of more clouds could be an enhanced thermal transport resulting from increased tropical cloud formation, or the same cloud formation could result in increased albedo and thus reduced heating from the sun. This effect is further complicated by the gradual decrease of the Earth's magnetic field, which would tend to permit more penetration of charged particles into our atmosphere. This is a small but continuing effect and may have some tipping point influence on the other feedback loops. The effect that we see on Global temperatures is a complex combination of influences that may include - or have been initiated by an increase in solar luminosity. The sun spot record suggests it. The exageration of the consequences of that increase is due to many factors, including that of man-made CO2. It is a bit naive to rush off and try to fix the problem over the short term, because the trouble has been brewing for over 300 years. It is a lesson in the consequences of ignorance, and should, in a perfect world, result in a sustainable closed economy, where our inputs and outputs balance. The unanswered question in my mind is - How long will the solar effect last and what can we expect next?