I think that once the process is identified to achieve the orders of magnitude required to scale up fusion to commercial quantities that there will be a period of very expensive reactors that will perfect the required industrial processes to bring the cost down.
Your comment there brings up a very important general point about how technology develops.
ALL successful technologies develop by iteration, and this iteration can only happen if the cost of an iteration is sufficiently small. This means benchtop, or garage scale, technologies advance. If a technology starts at a point where an iteration costs $20B, it will go nowhere.
If fusion is to have any chance at all, it will be with technologies that can be investigated for $20M, not $20B. And once an iteration gets sufficiently expensive relative to the size of the market (see, for example, passenger airliners), advancement slows way down or stops.
See the Charpin report: “Economic forecast for nuclear power” by Jean-Michel Charpin, Benjamin Dessus, René Pellat, Report for France's Prime Minister. September 2000, Paris. Translated quote:
The extra cost associated with reprocessing and MOX (mixed-oxide) fuel fabrication, compared to direct fabrication of UOx (uranium oxide) fuel fabrication (from enriched uranium) is not offset by savings of natural uranium through plutonium use (or savings) resulting from reduction in the direct cost of disposing of final wastes," the experts wrote. "In other words, this strategy, from the viewpoint of the utility, represents an increase in the cost of a kilowatt-hour, which appears as an obstacle to its competitiveness, an element that is increasingly intolerable in (an electricity) market opening to competition.
So far, unless you're on an island and have to ship in your diesel fuel, solar doesn't make economic sense without massive subsidies.
This is false. Solar has made sense for people living even modest distances from grid for quite some time now. As solar has gotten cheaper, the distance has dropped. In some sunny locations (for example, much of Australia), the breakeven distance is now zero.
If you have tritium and can do boosting, there is no need for 'weapons grade' Pu to make weapons. This is the key point!
So-called weapons grade Pu is called that because that's the isotope mix you get when you maximize Pu production in a thermal reactor (leave it in longer and too much Pu gets burned up). It's not because more Pu-240 makes the material unsuitable for weapons.
The Pu used in very early weapons, before they had boosting, had very low Pu-240 content (so-called "super weapons grade"). Once boosting was invented it was no longer necessary to make the Pu so pure.
Pu-240 is more than just an impurity, btw. It fissions too, with a higher cross section (and lower critical mass) than U-235.
They talk about the break-even point because it's the key to fusion power.
No, it's only the first step to fusion power. The real killer is going to be making a practical, reliable, economically competitive reactor. No one knows how to do that. At this point, tokamaks and ICF, even if they achieved breakeven, would be practical dead ends.
If I have seen farther than others, it is because I was standing on the shoulders of giants. -- Isaac Newton