Functional simulations will only catch #1.
...you know that a small random sample of the population tells you what the general population is like to a very high degree of certainty.
Statistics allows you to extrapolate results from a small sample set if, and only if, the the entire sample set follows a known statistical model.
There is no such thing as a right to the market value of one's property--which only exists in the minds of others to begin with.
I wish housing values weren't guaranteed either. Unfortunately the federal government has recently passed some extremely large spending programs designed specifically to do just that.
"Probably the best operating system in the world is the [operating system] made for the PDP-11 by Bell Laboratories." - Ted Nelson, October 1977