Comment Oracle wins even if it loses (Score 1) 61
This is a master stroke of strategy. Oracle does not have to win the acquisition battle for it to win the middleware war. Let's review the outcomes:
1) No one else steps up to bid, and Oracle ups its offer. Oracle wins BEA - the $17 offer was probably a low ball anyways.
2) BEA keeps refusing: Licenses fall because customers are unsure of the future. Oracle LOWERS its bid and the board forces a sale (as happened with PeopleSoft) or there are shareholder lawsuits because the shares fall below the $17 value in the market.
3) SAP enters the fray: Unlikely with the Business Objects bid in play.
4) IBM or Microsoft enter the fray: Unlike due to antitrust or technology reasons respectively.
5) HP enters the fray: possible, but HP is more of a services and system management firm.
If BEA tries to stay independent, it is harmed because its future is now in doubt because it is seen by everyone as "in play." IBM and Oracle become the "safe" choices for corporate purchases of middleware. If it gets bought by anyone, it is removed from the marketplace while it is integrated into its new parent. Oracle wins the war regardless of the outcome.
1) No one else steps up to bid, and Oracle ups its offer. Oracle wins BEA - the $17 offer was probably a low ball anyways.
2) BEA keeps refusing: Licenses fall because customers are unsure of the future. Oracle LOWERS its bid and the board forces a sale (as happened with PeopleSoft) or there are shareholder lawsuits because the shares fall below the $17 value in the market.
3) SAP enters the fray: Unlikely with the Business Objects bid in play.
4) IBM or Microsoft enter the fray: Unlike due to antitrust or technology reasons respectively.
5) HP enters the fray: possible, but HP is more of a services and system management firm.
If BEA tries to stay independent, it is harmed because its future is now in doubt because it is seen by everyone as "in play." IBM and Oracle become the "safe" choices for corporate purchases of middleware. If it gets bought by anyone, it is removed from the marketplace while it is integrated into its new parent. Oracle wins the war regardless of the outcome.
