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Comment Re:I don't think the promises are empty (Score 1) 26

Maybe, I hear stories of programmer's speed being boosted enourmously by ai. I never actually see their work or their apps being published though. In fact there's a suspicious lack of real evidence to me.

I'm a programmer and I get about the same boost from AI as I would have gotten if someone made a really good Stack Overflow search engine - which is to say not a lot. Yesterday I was working on some UI stuff I didn't know how to do. I could have asked AI about it, I could have gotten ai to write it for me and then cleaned up what they did, i could have read some poorly written articles on the internet about it, but instead I just figured it out myself over about 30 minutes and I'm 1000% sure that was by far the most timely way to do it, and the way that allows me to learn how to do it again next time very fast.

Comment Re:What do you mean, "what happens next"? (Score 4, Informative) 93

Republicans have never been a small goverment party and they've never been a fiscally conservative party either, at least not in the lifetime of most Americans. Just because they say they are doesn't mean anything.

Nobody expanded the power of the goverment like Bush and Trump. They also did a huge amount for the sake of expanding the size of our debt.

Comment Ragebait is facinating. (Score 3, Insightful) 28

One thing that is cool about the interesting times we live in is that you can see bad actors exploit human psychology in really powerful ways. I myself fall for ragebait far, far more than a lot of other types of attempted bait like - advertisements, false promises of riches or enticing images of intersting things that don't really exist.

I don't particularly like falling for ragebait but I do find it interesting and I look forward with dread/facination for the next ways human psychology is exploited in the future!

Comment This is cool but how much $? (Score 1) 15

Their prentation was cool to watch but it didn't mention the number of video cards that it takes to run and the power bill. I would love to know what those numbers are.

It would be very cool if demand for this kind of ultra-complex simulation leads to amazing hardware innovation - but at the moment its looking like its just about buying vast numbers of video cards instead of building better ones. Maybe the market will eventually create really great new hardware based on this demand that can cheaply run amazing real life simulations all day- or maybe by that time people will decide this is all too expensive and not generating enough value and simply shut these ai systems down.

Comment Re:A bunch of rural communities (Score 2) 22

The rich didn't have consumers to worry about during most of human history - like consider the middle ages. The rich owned the land and the people payed them for the privilege of farming it. A special class of artisans served the rich and didn't do much with the peasants. The peasants only existed to labor on the land for the benefit of the rich because farming used to be a lot of work.

Sometimes there wasn't enough food and the peasants rose up to overthrow the rich. How many times did they succeed? 0.

Comment Re:lots of forking paths here (Score 1) 68

I haven't yet seen any jobs created by fixing ai screw ups. Is ai creating bad code, messing up filing systems, creating massive lawsuits from faulty paperwork, etc as we speek? I bet it is! I anticipate fixing ai screwups will be a thing in the future - if not already. Those jobs do not sound like fun ones to do though.

Comment lots of forking paths here (Score 3) 68

There are a few trains of thought about ai and jobs that I've noticed:

1. Nah its mostly all hype and not many jobs will be lost.
2. Oh yeah, jobs will be lost but that's cool because we'll make new jobs!! (insert adage about horses and tractors or whatever).
3. Yes, there will now be permanantly more unemployment. But that's cool because society will take care of everyone with things like UBI
4. There will now be permanantly more unemployment - and society is too disfuntional to take care of people so there will just be a lot of poor, desperate people while the owners of the AI get super rich and the middle class will disappear.
5. Yeah. 4 is true BUT China will totally do it if we don't so we have to embrace ai.

I feel like 1 or 4 are the most likely things here myself. I think people who believe society has always adjused to unemployment causes by technological change by creating new jobs are missing some big chunks of the history of economics and world-wide trade.

Comment Re:It doesn't have to be AI (Score 1) 124

My understanding is that musk normalized lying to shareholders and getting away with it. The shareholders discovered that if he made really big lies the stock went up enormously, and they liked that. It took years for other ceos to catch on but now its generally considered the thing a really successful buisness leader ought to do. Examples of promising things that the ceos almost certainly know are not going to happen soon include

Michael Saylor says a BTC will be worth $5 million
Mark Zuckerburg saying digital goods (nfts) will soon be a huge part of the economy
Uber saying that soon nobody will own cars because of them

Comment I liked budget carriers. (Score 1) 67

I mean if you knew what you were getting and weren't expecting the normal airline experiance it was great.

In fact I find a lot of the normal airline experiance annoying and preferred Frontier for just being a simple transport from point A to point B without any bs. It felt quicker and more streamlined, with less distracting chatter from flight attendents, less people fussing with their stupid airplane food, and everyone carried less luggage so deplaning was faster. It was great.

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