1. Fertilizer is made from methane, so that's also stuck there. This is a HUGE problem for countries like India.
2. Poor countries are already switching to 4 day work weeks to save fuel.
3. Iran is letting ships whose balances are settled in Yuan leave. That means the power of the petro-dollar is under serious threat.
4. Countries that can no longer get Iranian oil are now buying non-Iranian oil, which drives the price of ALL oil up. There's speculation that it will hit $200/barrel. That's more than 3x what it was over the last few years. That will affect the price of literally everything. All transportation costs go up, so costs for all goods go up.

At some point, the price will get high enough that some countries won't be able to buy it at all, they'll give up. At that point, some interesting things might happen, since the demand drop-off vs. the price drop off will cause a wobble in the price. People will start looking elsewhere for energy.

Solar and small-battery vehicles (e-bikes, e-scooters) might start taking off even more. You might not be able to buy petrol for your car, but your e-bike charges quickly and can still tow a few hundred pounds worth of stuff. Maybe BEVs adoption will become even MORE popular, since it's one less way you have to directly pay for petrol.

But this war is all con. 100%. Like, Trump didn't even fill up the oil reserves before going to war. China's been buying oil for MONTHS at low rates now, so they're actually the least impacted here, despite the fact that they get a lot of oil from Iran. That means they have zero impetus (not that they had much previously) to do anything about this. This is purely punishment for the USA. Those are expensive weapons being wasted on Iranian targets (in some cases, planes that are actually just paint on the ground). It might be possible for the USA to open up the strait again, but the second they leave, Iran can just close it off again. This might be the most forever of the forever wars, or it might just be an outright defeat for the USA.

This whole thing is such a mess on so many different axes. I didn't even get into how Israel is driving a lot of this, and it's all because Netanyahu is a corrupt warmonger. He's firing in all directions, and he's relying on the USA to protect him.

It wasn't just to maintain value for their corporate properties, it's because they love seeing people in the office, doing their bidding. They'd be able to save so much on capital expenditure if everyone worked from home, but they keep people in the office because they looooooove to see who they're oppressing.

Yeah, there was just fuel rationing and it FUNDAMENTALLY changed the car industry for decades? Big cars went out of style and Japanese econoboxes became a thing because people wanted to spend less on gas?

I get it, you were a KID in the 70s, so you didn't really understand what was going on and what the challenges were. But you could go and read about them now if you want--you're probably north of 50, I think you're ready to learn the truth.

TouchID is a nice-to-have, not a must-have. I have a Mac Mini and I have no way to get TouchID on this thing and it doesn't make it a bad computer with no security.

The extra storage is the REAL thing you want for MacOS. 256GB is almost unworkable, IMO. It's what I have on this Mac Mini and I've had to fight pretty hard to keep my disk space free, even with a bunch of external drives hanging off of it.

For a laptop, the chip is fine. The A18Pro is faster than the M1 Mac Mini that I'm typing this on, and the M1s are all still getting along just fine--I'd like a newer machine because I compile code now and then and it's punishing on this thing, but for day-to-day use, it's still going strong. The REAL limiting factor on these machines is storage. 256GB is *barely* enough. macOS is bad about allowing you to offload certain things to external drives without jumping through some hoops, and once the space starts to run out, the OS flips out pretty hard. So storage management is kind of always an ongoing thing.

But if you're mostly using it for a bit of schoolwork, web browsing, some spreadsheets, and you rely on the cloud for all your photos and music, it's probably fine.

Seriously, this is a very good deal. I do agree that they should have physically marked the USB 2.0 port SOMEHOW, but other than that, this was a decent set of compromises to make to drop the price.

It's making a comeback. It's WAY easier than painting, and the glues are better so it's easier to get the paper off afterwards if you want to take it down.

There are now THREE core types:
Super (previously 'Performance')
Performance (new)
Efficiency (same)

The M5 Pro and up chips have a mix of 'Super' and 'Performance'.
The base M5 chip has a mix of 'Super' and 'Efficiency', but has no (new) 'Performance' cores.

It's not straightforward, but it's not the same as Apple making the chips worse and renaming the cores so you don't notice.

I have Apple Music and it's FINE, but I'm annoyed at how often I have to authenticate myself for my own goddamn music. Now, a lot of the music is stuff that I already own that I've uploaded to Apple to match for me, but I want to be able to say that I own my music, that I can take my ball and leave any time I want.

The main reason I still use Apple Music/iTunes is that there is STILL no music player with smart playlists as good. I still have playlists that are things like, "select 25 songs by least recently played from the compound list of other playlists that are selected by rating and play frequency". I've looked, and nothing else is remotely as powerful. But I want to be in control of that music so if one day I decide I'm gonna put it on an SD card and just play music only on a physical device hooked up to speakers and never use my phone again or whatever, I have that option.

And I love some of the artists whose albums are in my library as streaming only. I want them to get paid for the amount of enjoyment I derive, and I know that streaming rates are absolute garbage. Return me to the days of the iTunes Music Store and CD Baby and Bandcamp. (I still buy from Bandcamp quite a lot. More this year.)

It's worth noting that the Canadian grant system is incredibly overloaded, and so it can be really hit or miss for artists who are at the beginning of their careers. I have friends in several theatre groups and they have to jump through a lot of hoops and ultimately get very little grant money.

The basic income plan is so much better just for its reliability.

Life is full of struggle and suffering without also heaping starvation on top of that. There have even been artists that continue to be great artists AFTER they're rich and no longer need the money to survive and are free to create whatever they want.

Lots of people keep working at things that they enjoy even without remuneration.

What I'd like to know is why they didn't just say for every $1 invested, $1.38 comes back. Do Irish folks pay in $1.20 increments?

But all of it is work that I never would have done in the first place.

I had Gemini write. me some elisp so that I can bring up a buffer with all my CLs in it. I wanted something I could use inside emacs rather than moving 2 virtual desktops over to p4v.

Clearly, this work is not critically important. But it does make my life marginally better. But it's so low priority that it wouldn't have been worth my time to figure out how to interact with p4 and dump everything into an org buffer.

I greatly suspect it's work like that (or work of that calibre, which is often what some devs are hired to do) that's actually getting done, with a few outliers here and there getting actually good, important work done.

I've been a game dev for 25 years, and I'm not so full of hubris to say that no LLM will ever be as good at coding as me.

But most game code isn't public domain, so there's not going to be a lot of training on it. There's a lot of weird stuff that we do at the behest of designers that nobody would ever think to do (whether that's because it's a terrible idea or a brilliant idea is really only knowable after people play the game).

The devil has always been in the details, and so much of good game development is about good human communication and understanding what makes a fun game. Sometimes you just don't know. You're 3 years into a game and there's all this tech and it still isn't fun, and you're trying to figure out the special sauce that will engage people and it's hard. And the way we usually get through it is we play a lot of games and all of us come in with our own idea of fun and we take chances based on things that we personally enjoy. Every professional designer I know plays games as homework. (Some companies help defray the cost, some just demand that they do it as a condition of their employment; it doesn't much matter, designers are gonna play games no matter what anyone tells them.)

And so I'm relatively confident that games will mostly be a collaborative effort because programmers ALSO play games and ALSO bring that experience to the table. As much as designers and programmers will complain about one another, we really do feed off of the contention. Programmers provide infrastructure, but also BOUNDARIES. We know what's slow and what's fast and what shortcuts we can take. And hey, maybe that will all be possible with an AI in the future too, but I have my doubts.

But I had Gemini fix a bunch of garbage problems with some elisp that have been plaguing me for a few years that I never would've bothered to look into because my setup was good enough. I listened to one programmer talk about how he tackled a problem of (human language) translation that he never would have attempted because the task was too large and too tedious.

I actually don't think that LLMs will be making programmers meaningfully more productive for a long while. I don't write enough so-called boilerplate code for it to save me any time there. But I'll definitely take on some tasks that never would have gotten done at all. I think we might see more small websites pop up, for instance. I've never bothered to learn anything about web dev after the HTML/Geocities/webring days, but maybe I'll do something now that LLMs can walk me through it. Small automation tasks, writing scripts. Hobbyist stuff for people that don't want another hobby.

There's already a lot of human-generated slop code out there, and maybe the folks that write that stuff are going to be replaced. I think there are really technical or esoteric or experiential programming jobs out there that won't be, though. I just have more time to do my actual work because all of the dumb little distracting tasks that I used to spend a half day on are now 10 minute LLM chats.

Actually, a second comment to expound a little:

Few people commit crimes knowing that they'll get caught. I would daresay that nearly 100% of criminals believe that they'll get away with it.

If you think you're going to get away with a crime, you're not going to consider the potential consequences. Alternately, some people commit certain kinds of crimes because they believe they've got a moral cause to do so (some kinds of protests, refusing the draft, etc.)

Given that, the severity of the penalty probably doesn't enter into their minds much. Those 11 people thought they could get away with their crimes long enough that the death penalty (which they surely knew was on the table) wouldn't matter.

Indeed, if you actually go and look up the research on it, it doesn't appear to have a meaningful deterrent effect over and above life imprisonment.

So again, to reiterate: you don't know what a deterrent is.

You don't know what is.

The death penalty isn't a meaningful deterrent--we still have a lot of crime. We still have these 11 people perpetrating crime until they're caught and killed by the state. This assumes that they're actually the guilty parties and not some fall-guys for the real criminals.

Punishment is the *worst* way to *prevent* crime because it relies on:
a) someone actually committing the crime (that is, the harm is done)
b) someone caring enough to solve the crime
c) the system prosecuting the crime

The reason the whole carceral system sucks is because harm is done to victims and the only "justice" they get is the perpetrator maybe not doing more crimes. They don't get compensation or therapy or anything. The state fails them utterly. I'm sure these 11 people being dead (assuming, again, that they were the actually guilty parties) gives the victims some measure of comfort, but it sounds like their lives were still pretty much ruined, so I dunno.

Compare to Scandinavian countries where they're closing prisons down because they don't have prisoners to put in them because they simply have less crime, and when someone DOES commit a crime, they rehabilitate them.

I don't trust the criminal justice system to do the right thing in MOST cases. It's shown itself to be subject to corruption and the worst aspects of crony capitalism the same as every other industry. I suppose these days we need to be worried about governments executing people in the streets with no trial, but I'm not convinced that the show of a trial is much help either.

Games, like movies and music and most other art forms, have been political for decades. The problem is mostly the second thing: the mercenaries and bad CEOs.

There's plenty of 'politics' even in fun movies, but you don't notice, because they're good. Make a bad game and everything sticks out like a sore thumb, and then it often gets blamed on the 'politics'. Most of the games that were 'ruined' by the political message would have been bad no matter what, because the devs weren't given the creative space to do better.

There are games that are practically ONLY politics ('Papers Please') comes to mind, but the games are so compelling, that's not necessarily what you notice. Games aren't purely about escapism any more than visual arts or music are, though we often go to them for that purpose. But as with most things, if you let a big corporation get their hands on it, they crank out the most profitable pablum they can and they don't really care what it says as long as their margins are big enough.