Comment Re:Survey says, (Score 1) 943
I want to point out a more profound point about polls and the interpretation of them. What is the truth about the result of the poll? The only truth is that 60% of those who watched the show AND bothered to vote, has answered "yes" to the question "Do you believe that there is life on other planets in the universe besides earth?" All other "truths" are guesses and extrapolations from that.
The first guess is that all those 60% actually believe in the "yes" and that it's not a bunch of prank votes. To some degree, I can accept that it is correct that 60% of the viewers who bothered to vote believe so.
The next step is to assume that 60% of the viewers believe in E.T. life. I think that is not so, because people who believe in it are far more likely to participate in the voting than people who don't. So that makes the score too high.
Further on, people assume that this can be extrapolated to the population of the U.S. in general (the title of this article is "60% of U.S. Believe Life Exists On Other Planets"). People who believe in life on other planets are far more likely to watch these kinds of shows. Thus the percentage of viewers believing in E.T. life is higher than in the general U.S. population. Taking this into account, the number should be even less.
If they phoned a completely randomized selection of people in the U.S. and asked them the question (thereby getting a fair mix of people who watches these shows and those who don't, and a fair mix of people who bothers to vote on these polls and those who don't) we would get a completely different (and lower) result.
To summarize, the bias of this poll is that the voters were a preselected group with a higher affinity of voting in a particular direction than the general population. So don't give to much credibility into the result of polls like these in the future.
The first guess is that all those 60% actually believe in the "yes" and that it's not a bunch of prank votes. To some degree, I can accept that it is correct that 60% of the viewers who bothered to vote believe so.
The next step is to assume that 60% of the viewers believe in E.T. life. I think that is not so, because people who believe in it are far more likely to participate in the voting than people who don't. So that makes the score too high.
Further on, people assume that this can be extrapolated to the population of the U.S. in general (the title of this article is "60% of U.S. Believe Life Exists On Other Planets"). People who believe in life on other planets are far more likely to watch these kinds of shows. Thus the percentage of viewers believing in E.T. life is higher than in the general U.S. population. Taking this into account, the number should be even less.
If they phoned a completely randomized selection of people in the U.S. and asked them the question (thereby getting a fair mix of people who watches these shows and those who don't, and a fair mix of people who bothers to vote on these polls and those who don't) we would get a completely different (and lower) result.
To summarize, the bias of this poll is that the voters were a preselected group with a higher affinity of voting in a particular direction than the general population. So don't give to much credibility into the result of polls like these in the future.
