Slashdot is powered by your submissions, so send in your scoop

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror

Comment Re: And this is the problem. (Score 1) 105

I do not think that will work. Because who would make that decision and implement it? It will just be the start of open "value" manipulation.

Actually, I looked it up rather than going from memory: BTC difficulty updates don't happen every few months they happen every 2016 blocks, which is roughly every two weeks. And the process is entirely automated, adjusting the difficulty to maintain a new block rate of about one every 10 minutes. In fact, the "2016" number was chosen because it's the number of 10-minute intervals in two weeks. This is all part of Satoshi's original design.

The most recent adjustment happened on Feb 7, and it was a downward difficulty adjustment. This wasn't a new phenomenon; downward adjustments are much less common than upward adjustments, but they've happened many times in the past.

So, BTC adapts automatically to price changes that making mining more or less profitable.

Comment Re: And this is the problem. (Score 1) 105

I do not think that will work. Because who would make that decision and implement it? It will just be the start of open "value" manipulation.

Difficulty is updated every few months. This is a routine process. I'm not sure that it has ever been decreased rather than increased, but I don't think that will be a significant obstacle.

Comment Re:legacy C code (Score 1) 62

The main fallacy here is to assume there was a lot of effort spend making old C code safe. Maybe they did some fuzzing, etc. and this is great. But if I were takes to make legacy C code safe, I would go over and replace every open-coded string or buffer manipulation by a safe string or buffer abstraction. Yes, nobody want to do this, because playing with AI or new languages is so much more fun.

Even better: Tell the AI to go replace all of the potentially-unsafe constructs. LLMs are really good at that sort of refactoring.

Comment Re: Kind of weird (Score 2) 128

Computers are deterministic, software based on statistical models is not.

You're conflating non-deterministic with chaotic. You can have a perfectly deterministic system that exhibits chaotic behavior, meaning that the tiniest difference in input often produces a wildly different output.

Apparently 25 years of work has failed to solve the problem or we wouldn't be seeing all these hallucinations.

I think hallucinations may just turn out to be an essential feature of sufficiently-rich models. People hallucinate, too. Mostly we're better at identifying our hallucinations. Mostly.

Comment Re:And this is the problem. (Score 2) 105

Despite all this fuzziness, stocks are still much easier to understand than crypto, which is pure speculation with no inherent value

I think cryptocurrencies are super easy to understand, and the last clause of your sentence just spelled out everything anyone needs to know.

If you're into cryptography, you might find the details of how they work interesting (well, moderately; there isn't any really interesting cryptography there), but none of that has any bearing on whether it makes sense to put your money into it.

Comment Re:And this is the problem. (Score 1) 105

the market is so thoroughly penetrated and rigged by micro- and nanosecond traders that a live human has zero chance of making money

Nonsense.

It's debatable whether HFT is a net positive for the market (it does provide positive value, ensuring that pricing is consistent across markets), but it definitely doesn't "rig" the market. If you're trying to compete with the high frequency traders at their game, you're going to lose, but you're also doing it wrong. For people who don't spend all their time reading quarterly reports, the right way to do it is to put your money in a decent mutual fund or index fund, and let it grow. If you want to get more aggressive than that, then the way to do it is Buffet-style value investing: Identify companies with good products, in good markets, with good management and good long-term strategy, and buy and hold.

Comment Re:Hmmm (Score 2) 105

The US dollar is "backed" in the sense that if it crashes

No it's backed by something stronger than that. The US dollar is backed by the sheer volume of which it is traded for material goods. It's backed by the sheer volume of its international trade. It's also backed by the treasury bonds and as you eluded to the actions of a governing body that has an interest in keeping it stable.

It's got more than that behind it, too. It's backed by a massive network of debt contracts obligating people to do work in order to generate value in the form of dollars. That's how dollars are created: When banks issue loans they create the money[*] they're lending out at the same instant they create the loan contract that obligates someone to repay it.

Fiat currencies (which BTC is not) are essentially built on the legally-enforceable promise of people to do work in the future. They're backed by human energy and effort.

There are some science fiction stories in which civilizations have found a way to store large amounts of energy safely in small coins, which are used as currency. In those fictional civilizations, when you give someone money you are literally giving them power that they can use to do things. Some fantasy worlds do the same with congealed magic as currency (I recently read the "He Who Fights with Monsters" series, which has a world that does this). The value of such a coin is what you can do with it, completely aside from anyone's opinion about the value, and what you can do with it is defined by the contained energy. That would be the perfect currency, because the coins' worth is 100% intrinsic.

But fiat currencies are almost as good! They aren't encapsulated power to do stuff, but they represent a promise by some person or people to do stuff. They're very nearly 100% intrinsic value (unlike, say, gold, which has a little intrinsic value plus a lot of speculative value).

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is 100% speculative, with nothing at all backing it.

[*] It used to be the case that they arguably only created ~90% of the money they lent, but the reserve requirement was reduced to zero. Even before then it was debatable because while loans "tied up" reserve capital, requiring the banks to hold it in reserve, they did hold it, they didn't lend it out. In any case, with a 0% reserve requirement banks definitely now create every dollar they lend.

Comment Re:And this is the problem. (Score 5, Informative) 105

And that is all bitcoin is. It's all the stock market is, too.

You're completely wrong to equate bitcoin with the stock market. When you buy shares in a publicly-traded company you're buying something real, a portion of an actual business that owns real stuff, has real employees, makes real stuff and sells it to real people. Exactly how much that company is worth, so exactly how much your share is worth, isn't really clear because calculating that value requires a lot of guesses about what the company, and its market, and the economy as a whole, are going to do in the future. But it's definitely worth *something*.

That's not true of bitcoin. You won't hear people talking about bitcoin "fundamentals" the way they do with stocks, because bitcoin doesn't have any fundamentals. It's just vibes, all the way down. Oh you can talk about hashrates and work factors and the cost of mining equipment, etc., but none of that has any actual value. If the governments of the world united and successfully banned cryptocurrencies, all those ASIC rigs would be useless. If they were still using GPUs at least you could repurpose them for AI, or graphics.

Slashdot Top Deals

Dreams are free, but you get soaked on the connect time.

Working...