Comment Re:A hint... (Score 2) 146
This is correct, the education world has known this was coming. The same cohort has already had to enroll in high school and earlier, so there's already plenty of data about their population.
Of course there is a broader trend of declining birth rates, but a gradual reduction in population is easier to cope with. The Great Recession baby bust is probably going to be a little more acute for a few years, so we can expect the rate of closures to increase temporarily.
Personally I'm a lot more concerned about the ongoing effort to destroy the federal Department of Education. Losing federal financial aid (including interest-subsidized loans) in particular would price a huge portion of the public right out of higher education. It'll be a bloodbath for the institutions if that comes to pass. Maybe some states could step in and attempt to cover some of that gap for their residents, but I'd expect that to be the exception and not the rule.