Sociopolitical factors matter (Score 1)

The Chinese economy and manufacturing base will dwarf that of the US in fifteen twenty years, but dominance in science will take far longer. It's dangerous to rely on sheer numbers -- population, tech graduates, and research dollars -- to the exclusion of factors such as culture, or sociopolitical freedoms. The numerical approach is incomplete; look at Ireland's new status as a tech mecca, though it's no more educated than the rest of Europe. For that matter, look at Israel, which is on the cutting edge of more than a few scientific fields. Culture is hugely underrated as a factor, and the Chinese will be held back big-time on that score. People here have noted the utter lack of respect the Chinese tend to have for intellectual property, but haven't pointed to the source. Their culture is fundamentally collective; individual knowledge, innovation, and initiative aren't valued at anywhere near a Western level -- in fact, they're often punished. The concept of intellectual property, of individual creative achievement, is fundamentally foreign to Chinese society. More than the overall education level of a population, that concept is essential for real scientific advance. The only question is how quickly Chinese society will reshape itself. Which goes to the second point: Socio-political freedom matters. When lines of inquiry are shut down as unsanctioned by the government, when intellectuals are muzzled, when information-sharing is hobbled, creativity of all kinds suffers -- including scientific creativity. Genuine scientific advances, as opposed to mere notations completing some minor gap in existing theory, come about when ideas cross paths. By slowing down the flow of information, the Chinese government is smothering its scientific community.