also very interesting comments... I don't disagree for the most part, but I strongly feel the pull of reality.. reality is the AI wave is washing over us because 1. powers that be are forcing it on us,
Most businesses are doing it because the executives have been sold on the news cycle. Also saying "WE R TOTES IN ON AI!!!" means you get free stock bump even if you fire people for other reasons, but say it's because of AI. AI washing job losses is something that is going to have to be studied after the hype train crashes.
2. people are embracing it in droves because people are lazy.
That and people have been told it's more efficient blah blah blah. That and sometimes people are told "You must train to use, and use, AI." by their teachers and bosses. The problem being AI is -expletive- terrible. In the job I do there is a regular amount of troubleshooting tasks. This is because while things usually go to plan, when they break they just break. That means a little bit of hard work trying to figure out why. Figuring out why can mean digging through things that get increasingly esoteric until you find out why. AI, to be blunt, -expletive- sucks at this overall. Why? It can't even parse technical documentation properly. I have younger coworkers who I have trained who will also not use AI because: AI sucks, and believing what it spits out as an "answer" sucks the big felota to quote the Expanse. AI is a time suck. Learning to ask a question, something that is a skill, and reading comprehension, are still the two most important human skills. Doesn't matter if you're a carpenter, IT analyst, or an MD, those two matter the most today.
That leads to what you are implying I think. Costs for the silicon brains is high, and being subsidized until all the expertise is sucked out of us and we are all 100% dependent on it, then BAM! Raise prices as high as possible. The market will however dictate to some extent where that price point is. I saw this last year when one of the Big Boys started using using persona terminology. Think of an AI agent like a person, like an employee. Then you can quantify the value, and charge accordingly. Want a receptionist? Pay $X. Want a PHD in Math? Pay $10X. Want Skynet? Pay me $billions... make that $trillions. We will be held hostage.
The problem with that one is that AI is a terrible problem solver and, if the arc of performance remains the same, will never come close to matching people. I mean, it'd be one thing if it could come close. Having seen it, and humanoid robots, in action I'm left with the bitter truth: AI sucks the big felota. Humanoid robots suck the big felota. They just can't match, not even close outside of tests setup by the companies, people. Anthropic touted Claude passing a bunch of tests, but forgot to mention they wrote the tests. OpenAI touted ChatGPT doing well on some tests, but forgot to note they dropped the ones that AI typically fails hard. You see marathon and kung fu bots, but what you don't see (exception given to Boston Dynamics which even created gag reels) is the massive amount of work put into scripting a particular performance.
I've gone to the dark side on this. I will bet you a beer the oligarchs win this round. It's no longer about quality, or value to consumers. It's about value to Oligarchs. Value to Big Brains. Value to Authoritarians... Your doctor is already using it. Governments and business are retooling as fast as possible. You will use it whether it works or not, because all your service providers will use it, and therefore by the transitive property, you'll be using it too.
I think we'll see what you're saying, right up to the point it breaks. The problem is that AI is all smoke and mirrors, at least for now. You can't really replace a bunch of people. Even at Salesforce the CEO had to admit most of the people were reassigned, ironically to very similar jobs like customer sales, services, and success. Speaking of someone who did support, aka service, in college let me just say that's a fancy way of saying they built a new phone tree.