Comment Kosovo factoids - no easy ground access (Score 1) 315
I think it highly unlikely that Russia will
intervene in the Balkans. They'll probably show the flag, have their fleet float around, and supply intel and other support to the Serbs, but a
direct intervention is unlikely.
That having been said, taking on the Serbs by
themselves will be no picnic, given all the other committments the US military has-Iraq, North
Korea, anti-drug ops, etc-things which the politicians insist we have to do, no matter what.
Frederick the Great's remark that "He who defends
everything defends nothing" is not something
that any of our current politicos seem to understand. (And that is true of Republicans and
Democrats.)
In addition to the road problem with Kossovo, there are other factors to consider. How would
you supply those troops? Albania's ports
are almost certainly not up to that task, and
Greece is unlikely to allow us to supply troops
through Salonika. (The route for supply in
that case would be from Salonika through
Macedonia-another headache.) We could probably
get the us of Bulgaria's ports-but they would
almost certainly ask for a large chunk of Macedonia. (And we'd still be shipping supplies
through Macedonia.)
All this is before you think about another issue-if we send in ground troops into Kossovo
alone, to defend that province against the Serbs in the rest of Serbia, while maintaining an air
campaign against Serbia, many people should start
having flashbacks to the Vietnam war, where we
followed a similar strategy against North Vietnam.
If we're talking about sending in ground troops,
we're really talking about going to war against
Yugoslavia proper. This will be far less of a
challenge, from a logistic point of view, than holding Kossovo, as we almost certainly have
help from the Croats and Bosnians. Casualty
wise, I'd expect that US forces would have in excess of 20,000 deaths (to say nothing of wounded), and that the Serbs would suffer a much larger number-probably close to the million mark. There would also be massive property destruction-not just in Serbia, but probably also in Albania,Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Greece, and Bulgaria.(It would be very hard for those countries to stay out of such a conflict.) And this would not be a short campaign-it would take years.
I feel for the Kossovars, and what is being done to them is wrong, but the measures we'd have to
take to correct it would cause worse suffering
than the current crisis, and over a much broader
area of Europe. What we should be doing is
helping to settle as many of them as possible in
Albania, and letting more of them into the United
Staes-if we only admit Kossovars for the next year
or so, we'll do more to help them than this ill
concieved intervention ever will do.
Like it or not, humanitarian concerns should not
motivate out foreign policy. Every time
we've let them do so, it's led us into disaster.
intervene in the Balkans. They'll probably show the flag, have their fleet float around, and supply intel and other support to the Serbs, but a
direct intervention is unlikely.
That having been said, taking on the Serbs by
themselves will be no picnic, given all the other committments the US military has-Iraq, North
Korea, anti-drug ops, etc-things which the politicians insist we have to do, no matter what.
Frederick the Great's remark that "He who defends
everything defends nothing" is not something
that any of our current politicos seem to understand. (And that is true of Republicans and
Democrats.)
In addition to the road problem with Kossovo, there are other factors to consider. How would
you supply those troops? Albania's ports
are almost certainly not up to that task, and
Greece is unlikely to allow us to supply troops
through Salonika. (The route for supply in
that case would be from Salonika through
Macedonia-another headache.) We could probably
get the us of Bulgaria's ports-but they would
almost certainly ask for a large chunk of Macedonia. (And we'd still be shipping supplies
through Macedonia.)
All this is before you think about another issue-if we send in ground troops into Kossovo
alone, to defend that province against the Serbs in the rest of Serbia, while maintaining an air
campaign against Serbia, many people should start
having flashbacks to the Vietnam war, where we
followed a similar strategy against North Vietnam.
If we're talking about sending in ground troops,
we're really talking about going to war against
Yugoslavia proper. This will be far less of a
challenge, from a logistic point of view, than holding Kossovo, as we almost certainly have
help from the Croats and Bosnians. Casualty
wise, I'd expect that US forces would have in excess of 20,000 deaths (to say nothing of wounded), and that the Serbs would suffer a much larger number-probably close to the million mark. There would also be massive property destruction-not just in Serbia, but probably also in Albania,Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Greece, and Bulgaria.(It would be very hard for those countries to stay out of such a conflict.) And this would not be a short campaign-it would take years.
I feel for the Kossovars, and what is being done to them is wrong, but the measures we'd have to
take to correct it would cause worse suffering
than the current crisis, and over a much broader
area of Europe. What we should be doing is
helping to settle as many of them as possible in
Albania, and letting more of them into the United
Staes-if we only admit Kossovars for the next year
or so, we'll do more to help them than this ill
concieved intervention ever will do.
Like it or not, humanitarian concerns should not
motivate out foreign policy. Every time
we've let them do so, it's led us into disaster.
