Accept the Counter-Offer (Score 1)

1) You stated you were happy at your current job. The powers that be aren't going to spend money extending you a raise when they have every reason to assume that you are happy in the first place. Job offers also amazingly often come around when company-wide raises are not being handed out, so perhaps that raise was en route anyways. 2) Who knows, if you would have asked for a raise you very well may have gotten it. 3) I have my suspicions that the very list pointed out in your post may have been originally generated by a headhunter-recruiter type organization. They are notorious for pushing that "Never-accept-a-counter-offer" propaganda around the web. Counter-offers are legitamate, standard business practices, and the fact that you have one doesn't downplay your organization's respect for you, and in fact likely further enhances it. I'd say go for it. If you are in fact happy, stay.