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Comment Re:Depends On What You Mean (Score 1) 159

Replying here seems most relevant to what I'd like to share.
A co-worker told me: "We'll always have jobs because people will always need someplace to go to get away from their kids." Perhaps there is some truth to that and some truth also to the future demand for artisanal stuff.
I also don't worry so much about job replacement en masse overnight, but I do worry about an inevitable rise in anxiety as jobs become less 'real'. See 'The Rise of Bullshit Jobs' and this related article: https://jacobinmag.com/2018/06...
I see two attractor states: post-scarcity Star Trek future, or a very grim future where there's just not much useful for most people to do.
The very grim state, where the world is full of apes who will ensure that there is a hierarchy where some are at the top and others are not, seems likely to me as a path of 'real' opportunity to make a go of life through grit and hard work is squeezed. With some irony, labor shortages of those who pick vegetables may usher in the robopocalypse of more complete industrialization of the food chain. Land prices to leave the grid and do your own thing may increase dramatically as more folks become aware there are few ways to hedge against a future where people are generally less useful. Then, even applying bushcraft or homesteading skills would be just as bleak.

Comment Be First (Score 1) 210

In the movie, Margin Call (2011), the investment bank that saw the danger of their risk exposure first was prompted to sell and start a massive panic that sunk a competitor. The movie is loosely based on the Lehman crisis. "John Tuld: There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat. "

Comment what quants know (Score 3, Interesting) 198

I think there is a misperception that quants just run wild with models with catastrophic results and that they are naive when it comes to practical matters. However, quants are also taught about "model risk" to include things like: wrong assumptions, poor estimation of parameters, errors in discretization, etc. Let's also not forget the positive social value of financial innovation. It helps you borrow at lower rates, pay less for insurance, etc. There were a few problems that led to this financial crisis and I think quants played a relatiely minor role.

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