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Comment Re:Books (Score 1) 206

I was under the impression that most LLMs are mechanical turks - not in an immediate sense, but in the sense that a lot of workers around the world were involved in annotating the datasets LLMs are trained on.[1] So, from that perspective, what an LLM is doing is outsourcing (in time and space) your conversation to a random person using the internet. Insofar as there's thinking involved, what you're getting are reflections of the thinking involved in building the Chinese Room in the first place.

1. https://www.economist.com/inte...

Comment Re:I already know the ending (Score 4, Insightful) 183

Yep. Much like his endless Full Self-Driving promises to Tesla shareholders, Musk's promises of "Mars Real Soon" are vaporware, even moreso than the lunar lander services he's been paid for. This will be more wealth transfer, done at the expense of far more productive research and science.

Comment There seems to be a pattern here... (Score 3) 137

...and I don't just mean "rocket go boom".

SpaceX seems to largely have Booster working. Yes, they lost this one, intentionally pushing some limits on the reentry.

With Ship, Flights 4, 5, and 6 all managed controlled splashdowns. With Flight 7, SpaceX moved to Block2 Ship. Flight 7 was lost due to an internal fuel leak, Flight 8 due to Ship engine failure, and now Flight 9 has been lost with an apparent internal fuel leak, again. For whatever reason, Block 2 doesn't appear to be up to the challenge.

Comment What is the benefit to the American public? (Score 1) 164

Historically corporations have been permitted to exist because they can be an effective way of getting objectively desirable things done. Things like shareholder value and market capitalization are at best orthogonal to whatever public goods they may produce. Look at the top ten US companies by market cap: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Berkshire Hathaway, Tesla, UnitedHealth Group, and Johnson & Johnson. Most of them are widely hated. The assassination of United Health's CEO was celebrated more than mourned. Of them all, Berkshire Hathaway has the least negatives... and it is largely the opposite of what's described in the article. Innovation may lead to 800 lb corporate gorillas, but that doesn't make having 800 lb gorillas desireable.

Comment Spirt AeroSystems for the telco sector (Score 4, Interesting) 28

Back in 2005 Boeing spun off a lot of its parts production to a newly created company, Mid-Western Aircraft System (later renamed Spirit) to an investment management firm. The idea was clearly (although I don't know that I've ever seen a company spokecritter admit it) to have Spirit, under investment firm management, cut every corner possible to squeeze out more profits. Fast forward two decades, and Boeing is buying Spirit, because cutting corners didn't actually work. Looking at AT&T's announcement (https://about.att.com/story/2025/lumen-mass-markets-fiber-business.html), you can see the same plan taking form. "After closing the transaction with Lumen, the Company plans to sell partial ownership of NetworkCo to an equity partner that will co-invest in the ongoing business. AT&T expects to identify an equity partner and close a transaction within approximately 6-12 months of closing the transaction with Lumen. Upon closing a transaction with an equity partner, the Company expects NetworkCo will be deconsolidated from AT&T’s financial statements and operate as a wholesale commercial open access platform, providing fiber access services to AT&T as the anchor tenant. All acquired Lumen Mass Markets fiber customers will remain AT&T customers." I.e. "NetworkCo" will try to cut every corner and squeeze every penny, but it won't be "AT&T" doing it.

Comment The ever-popular '18 months' (Score 1) 46

"Altman said the goal is to release a device by late next year." Eighteen months is always the perfect timeframe for BS and hype. It's close enough that people who want to believe, or are easily persuadable will tell themselves "that's real soon!" and act (and buy) accordingly. But it is simultaneously far enough out that there is plenty of time for "no one could have seen this coming!" delays or changes in the overall economic climate. Alternatively, it is also far enough that if Altman just stops talking about it in a few months, in 18 months hardly anyone will even remember, and even fewer will care.

Comment What happens if it doesn't? (Score 2) 135

With numbers like, "raised $900 million at a $9 billion valuation — up from $2.5 billion earlier this year. Meanwhile, OpenAI acquired Windsurf (formerly Codeium) for $3 billion" it seems clear like 'AI coding continues to improve' is the baseline. What will happen to all those valuations (and whatever schemes are built around them) if AI coding doesn't keep improving?

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