I still think the targeted system argument is valid. You agreed that Windows is not as bad as it used to be, and mentioned that most computers are behind NAT routers anyway. The network services guys at work used to contact as from time to time to let us know they had disabled a port in a residence room. Unusual amounts of network activity (like 1000's of emails per hour) flags a port. To get an outbreak under control, 5-10 ports typically had to be disabled. Not a tonne of infection.
The amount of malware and virus infected machines that came into the help desk was a different story. Limewire, BearShare, screen savers, weather apps for the system tray... these are the vectors for attack. User run programs. From what we could tell, remote exploits were a very small part of the problem. With a fairly well isolated system of VLANs and firewalls to mitigate remote exploits we still had malware problems.
Network security has been improved (mostly by everybody being behind a router) and it's been while since the major Windows worm outbreaks. I honestly think that when Windows falls and another OS takes the top spot, it will have exactly the same problems. When the user base gets there and people start downloading cracked copies of The Sims 3 for [YourNewOS] you'll have problems. When people start using the new chat client, we will see malware replicate this way as well.
I don't think there will be any decrease in the number or success rate of the attacks, since the gap in hardening against remote exploits is narrowing, even if it is due to the world getting behind cheap home routers.
Contrary to Windows having in general poor security, I don't think I've had a virus since the late 90's. Yes, there could be well hidden viruses, but I do on occasion run fire up Process Explorer, run netstat to see what's open, and run WireShark on different system to see what's coming out of my machine. No problems. Why? I know sketchy downloads and emails when I see them.
I don't argue that Windows is better or even as good as Unix in security, but I do say that switching to Unix won't help.