Comment Usability (Score 2, Insightful) 291
The notion that technology is designed so well that we've reached the limits of human capacity is absurd on the face of it.
If a person uses the Web at all, they confront websites nearly everywhere that can be substantially improved through basic user testing and iterative refinement. Unusable websites, software, consumer electronics, and heck, kitchenware are so pervasive that it's not hard at all to expect leaps in productivity in the coming decade from improved design processes alone, without even introducing time-saving new features, and certainly without the fantasy of artificial intelligence.
The typical person on a typical website is only successful at even completing their tasks about 50% of the time. With a few rounds of user testing and refinement (around 5-6 rounds of testing is typical), task completion rates can be over 90% and time spent can improve by a factor of 2 to 3 -- this is based on my experience in doing just that for several websites.
One case study (my own) is this: "Making an iMpact: redesigning a business school web site around performance metrics", http://simplytom.com/research/UMBS_case_study.pdf (pdf file).
We're far from the limits of human capacity. Better usability is something we know how to do today. Combine that with common sense innovations, and large productivity gains are achievable without any far-fetched technologies.
