And we lost the war over the word "hacker" a decade or more ago.

"Crypto Currency" or "Crypto" as a shorthand might not be the best label, but it's the one that has stuck. Get used to it, because all the whining and begging in the world isn't going to change it.

Check the context. " If Bitcoin succeeds "...

I think crypto currencies will succeed, TBH. I'm less sure about Bitcoin specifically, these days.

But I can't think of a single set of circumstances where Bitcoin hasn't failed, but isn't highly valuable. It might fail and become worthless, I'll grant that possibility. But if that is not the case, then the current value can only be a small fraction of the long term.

$100k-$500k is just a number pulled out of my ass, tbh. But I don't think it's unreasonable. If Bitcoin is a success, that means it is going to see widespread global use. Whether that is for online person-to-person payments, a value store for the rich, currency for the poor, all of that, or something else. But there will only ever be 21 million tokens to go around, and several million of those are already irretrievably lost. For billions of people. $100k is only another 10X away, and there is still at least that much more potential growth. Do I agree with McAfee that it will hit $1 million by 2020? No. But I'd bet real money that in 5 years, Bitcoin is worth well in excess of $100k, OR less than $1. Probably more, but less would not surprise me. I see virtually zero chance that it's between those two (arbitrary) values.

I have used Bitcoin as a currency -- I have exchanged it directly with others over the Internet, in exchange for hard (And legal!) goods. I expect to do so again in the future, either with Bitcoin, or whatever replaces it. But with the recent meteoric rise, and the developing issues with extremely high fees and slow transactions (which are problems already solved by other crypto currencies) I'm more about hanging on, and seeing where it goes.

And for the record, I didn't sell my house to buy in. But I wish I had done so a year ago. :) I'd be ok being a rich fucking idiot, and hindsight is easy.

If you are mortgaging your house to buy Bitcoin, you're a fucking idiot. You deserve the very real chance of losing everything, but your family doesn't.

IF Bitcoin succeeds, a value of $100k-$500k is almost certain (As a floor. No one really has a clue what value a successful Bitcoin will plateau at over the long term.) -- Too many people and not enough supply for it to be otherwise. But Bitcoin is not yet a sure thing. Crypto in general may end up a failed experiment. Bitcoin specifically could implode, and be superceded by a different crypto. And even if it does succeed -- Bitcoin has had serious drops in the past -- seeing your investment drop to 25% of current value, and not recovering for 2 years is entirely possible.

If you've got some spare cash, and it won't cause irreparable harm if it disappears completely, sure, invest that if you think Bitcoin will succeed. But no more than that.

If Bitcoin manages to be successful and achieve widespread adoption, it will necessarily need to increase in value, due to it's scarcity.

What we are seeing could be a bubble, but it could also be due to adoption. Volitility was very low for 2015 and 2016, and with the exception of a few short dips, has been fairly consistently up in 2017.

If Bitcoin is successful, it will eventually find an equilibrium, and plateau, much like gold has.

I'm laughing all the way to the bank.

Which is not how the tulip bubble happened. You couldn't point at anything, as what bubbled was a poorly regulated tulip futures market.

Tulip mania had more in common with the 2008 mortgage crisis that with Bitcoin.

Capital gains taxes aren't that complicated.....

(sale value - (purchase value + trading fees)) * tax rate.

Why would the IRS care, as long as you are following the rules?

If anyone thinks they are going to make their Bitcoin millions and not pay the government their cut, they're an idiot.

Are you actually getting any referrals for your link spam?

I will admit to not having read the math in the article. But the power numbers stated might not be unreasonable. The Bitcoin network is currently calculating around 12 exahashes per second, and the computers that do the bulk of the heavy lifting are based on purpose built ASIC chips. They are literally incapable of doing anything but mining Bitcoin (or some other cryptocurrency that shares the Bitcoin proof of work algorithm)...

The newest ASIC miner -- the AntMiner S9 boasts an efficiency of 0.098 watts per gigahash. 12 exahashes is 12,000,000,000 gigahashes, or around 1.18 gigawatts. 24/7.

then

I think the odds are pretty good right now in Bitcoins favour, but it's not yet a sure thing by a long shot. The current run up might well be due to wider adoption, but it is also quite likely to see a severe correction in the next year. If it does, it might recover as it has done many times in the past. Or it might not.

No argument, and likely why scams have and continue to be so prevalent in crypto currencies. It's digital cash, and transactions are not reversible.

On the other hand, it's quite literally programmable money. Escrow systems will make a resurgence. It is entirely possible to build a transaction between you, me and a third party where I commit to a payment, and you commit to ship me a physical item. Once I have digitally committed to the payment, I cannot reverse it on my own. On the other hand, you cannot actually claim the payment on your own. Once the item arrives, I can release the payment to you. Or, if it doesn't arrive, the third party can either confirm or reverse the payment.

Credit card transactions can be reversed for months after the fact. Bitcoin transactions can be validated ("Yes, the signed transaction received has valid inputs.") almost instantly, and once it is included in the blockchain (Generally in minutes, sometimes as much as an hour.) it is irreversible. Much faster than PayPal or credit cards. As a merchant, if the value of the transaction is small, accepting unconfirmed transactions is an acceptable risk. If it's a high value transaction (For whatever value of "high" you is important to you.) then wait for a couple of confirmations. Chargebacks will never be an issue.

I haven't seen this since 2010-2011... :)