Comment Decline in Car Use Is More Likely (Score 2) 132
I was talking to a friend who is involved in a chemicals company and he reckons that li-ion is about done. They're spending huge money over the next decade just to get 20% more capacity.
But I think what people should always consider is that it's often not about a better version of something existing, but something else that solves our problems. Like governments thought supersonic flight was worth investing in, as people would want to get to meetings quicker, but what happened instead was that cheaper telecoms meant that people just did international conference calls or sent fax and data.
I think the big shift is going to just be about people using cars less and owning less cars. If you can mostly work from home and get groceries delivered, that's most of the value of car ownership gone. Yeah, you have other trips beside that, but how often? If it's rare, take a cab. Or ride a bus. Yes, a bus is slower, but you're saving £100+/month on not running a car. What is your time worth?