129456880
submission
Rei writes:
A paper recently published by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene adds further support to recent CDC guidelines for minimizing the use of invasive ventilators. As physicians had been voicing concern that doctors were being too eager to put patients on invasive ventilation and may be doing more harm than good, the investigators looked into outcomes of intubated patients vs. non-intubated patients experiencing hypoxia. Unlike with other forms of pneumonia, they found that COVID-19 patients were unusually damaged by invasive ventilation but also able to tolerate higher levels of anoxia — to the point that one doctor recalls having to tell patients to get off their cell phones so that they could be intubated. The recommendation is that guidelines be adjusted to discourage invasive ventilation unless a patient is physically struggling to breathe, rather than relying strictly on oxygen levels; otherwise, the use of non-invasive ventilation, such as CPAP and BiPAP, should be encouraged. When invasive ventilation is used, oxygen levels should be minimized in order to reduce the risk of damaging healthy tissue.
124509544
submission
Rei writes:
On Twitter yesterday evening, Elon Musk announced an upcoming AI party/hack-a-thon to be held at his house, and that invites will be going out soon. Asked whether a person needs to have a Ph.D to attend, Musk replied no — "All that matters is a deep understanding of AI & ability to implement NNs in a way that is actually useful (latter point is what’s truly hard). Don’t care if you even graduated high school." The hack-a-thon appears to be Musk's latest attempt to accumulate AI talent; last fall, Tesla acquired AI startup Deepscale in order to bring its engineers into its team, while days ago Musk posted an AI job ad on his Twitter page.
124191336
submission
Rei writes:
Yesterday Tesla rallied (up 11% aftermarket) after the company reported another great quarter, up nearly $1B in free cash (to $6,3B) and a GAAP operating profit of $359M / net profit of $105M — the unusually large difference between the two due in part to budgeting on the presumption that Musk will meet the criteria to receive his first CEO performance stock award. Model Y's schedule has been moved forward again, with deliveries now scheduled for the end of March — nine months ahead of the original schedule; it also gets a range boost from 280 to 315 miles, and a price reduction. Semi remains on track for production start by the end of the year. Despite theories by opponents that Tesla's Q3 margins were unsustainable, and despite negative margins at the newly-started factory in Shanghai, overall margins held steady (22,8%). Storage grew 11% and solar grew 26%, the latter in part due to the start of the solar roof rampup. After meeting 2019 delivery guidance (360-400k; actual = 367k); Tesla now guides for "comfortably exceeding 500k" deliveries for 2020.
On the earnings call, CFO Zach Kirkhorn noted that the coronavirus situation in China is evolving and must be monitored, but at present they're only expecting a 1-1,5 week factory shutdown in Shanghai and do not expect supplier disruptions to Fremont. While Tesla only released a feature-complete FSD preview in late 2019 (showing detections in city driving but not steering) despite "hoping" to have it released by the end of the year, in the conference call Musk described it as "close" and likely "in a few months" — noting that "feature complete" only means that the car can drive itself from driveway to destination, but still requires monitoring for interventions. Musk also revealed that they'll be soon updating the Model S EPA range, and that it's now up to nearly 400 miles. Lastly, he had to restrain himself from talking about the company's upcoming battery plans despite clearly wanting to, deferring all questions to a "Battery Day" event planned for April — stating only that they're "super deep" down the rabbit hole.
122550636
submission
Rei writes:
In an evening launch from Cape Canaveral, SpaceX launched its third batch of 60 Starlink satellites, continuing towards its goal of making the low-latency satellite broadband system operational in the US by the end of the summer. While the primary mission was flawless, SpaceX again struggled with catching the fairings in their net ships. This was the fourth launch of this particular Falcon 9 first stage, and it again touched down gently on the drone ship Of Course I Still Love You, albeit near the edge of its landing circle.
This launch now makes SpaceX the operator of the largest satellite constellation in the skies. Among the satellites launched, one was not like the others: a prototype with an anti-reflective coating. While Starlink satellites are individually not particularly bright to begin with (typical passes over the central US peaking at magnitude 3.5-7, avg. ~4.5, min 2.2, vs. a typical -2.5-1.5 for ISS, min -5.9), due to their sheer numbers, SpaceX seeks to reduce their visual signature to minimize their impact to ground-based astronomical observations.
117988296
submission
Rei writes:
After two profitable quarters last year, Tesla was hit by a perfect storm of filled US backlog, S/X cannibalization by Model 3, a botched international launch, and price cuts due to US tax credit phaseouts, leading to a very poor Q1 showing. While cashflow went positive in Q2, profits remained elusive, and — relying on lower-cost Model 3 variants with minimal US tax credits — expectations for Q3 weren't much better.
Instead, Tesla posted a blowout quarter: $5,3B record cash on hand, profits ($143M GAAP, $342M non-GAAP), margins rising from 18.9% to 22.8%, and sizeable growth in both solar and storage. Across the board, the company ran ahead of schedule: volume production of Model Y is pulled forward to next summer; Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai is producing cars and awaiting final sales certification after being built up from a muddy field in 10 months at a third the capital cost per vehicle; Semi (previously suggested as slipping to 2021) is back to 2020 production; and the production version of the solar roof tiles will be launching at an event on Thursday. The new, shipping crate-format Megapack energy storage products start being installed this quarter. As for vehicles, the company continues to be production constrained, with significant wait times on new orders in all markets; annual production and sales guidance of 360-400k was reiterated. Model S/X production is being raised to make up for new demand for the "Raven" update. On the self-driving front, while the company launched Smart Summon at the end of Q3, only $30M of revenue was recognized because of it; half a billion dollars of unrecognized Full Self Driving (FSD) revenue remains on the books for future quarters. The company reiterated guidance of FSD being "feature complete" (handling all driving from driveway to destination, with supervision) by the end of this year at least as a limited prerelease, and capability for unsupervised driving by the end of next year, limited by the rate of regulatory approvals. Also announced as upcoming in the next few weeks: OTA upgrades for range on new Model S/X vehicles, a 3% OTA performance improvement to S/X, and a 5% performance improvement for Model 3.
During the earnings call, Musk credited the surge in progress in Tesla's non-core divisions to being able to dedicate more engineering and financial resources to them after stabilizing Model 3 production rates and costs. Tesla's stock surged 20% in aftermarket trading, equivalent to the company's second-highest percentage gain ever, and its highest in absolute terms.
115200800
submission
Rei writes:
While the newly-unveiled Porsche Taycan (~$150-250k) set the electric car record at the Nürburgring late last month, Tesla apparently thinks they can beat it: not with the upcoming 2020 Roadster ($200k on up), but rather the Model S ($80-115k). CEO Elon Musk announced on Twitter last night that the Model 3 will be racing at the fabled track next week; when asked as to whether it would beat the Taycan, he responded simply with a smiley face.
While previous versions of the S and X were known to throttle heavily when subjected to sustained track duty due to rotor overheating in the vehicle's twin induction motors, earlier this year the vehicles received the new "Raven" powertrain, alongside a new active suspension. An evolved (and reversed) version of the Model 3 powertrain, Raven pairs a PMSRM front motor for sustained, efficient performance with an induction rear motor for low-end performance and freewheeling without cogging or magnetic drag. If results are similar to that of the Model 3 on the track, some mild performance loss over time should be expected, but similar to that of traditional ICE track cars — and the Taycan itself.
The Nürburgring is a famously difficult track, dubbed "The Green Hell", and holding records there is a mark of pride among automakers. It will be interesting to see who holds the crown at the end of next week.
114438202
submission
Rei writes:
Just days ago, Slashdot reported on a lawsuit from Walmart against Tesla over fires in several of its 240 industrial-scale rooftop solar systems installed by Solar City a decade ago. A day later, Tesla's response was published, arguing that Walmart has been trying to exploit the fires to get Tesla to cover the liability for all fires at Walmart stores (which occur once every few weeks) and to get a wide variety of other concessions to their contract, while holding solar systems that passed Walmart's own inspection regimen hostage in order to do so.
Today, it appears that the two parties have made up — Tesla and Walmart "are looking to address all issues surrounding the solar installations at Walmart stores" and "re-energizing Tesla solar installations at Walmart stores, once all parties are certain that all concerns have been addressed. Above all else, both companies want each and every system to operate reliably, efficiently, and safely."
114418484
submission
Rei writes:
Just days ago, Slashdot reported on a lawsuit from Walmart against Tesla over fires in several of its 240 industrial-scale rooftop solar systems installed by Solar City a decade ago. A day later, Tesla's response was published, arguing that Walmart has been trying to exploit the fires to get Tesla to cover the liability for all fires at Walmart stores (which occur once every few weeks) and to get a wide variety of other concessions to their contract, while holding solar systems that passed Walmart's own inspection regimen hostage in order to do so.
Today, it appears that the two parties have made up — Tesla and Walmart "are looking to address all issues surrounding the solar installations at Walmart stores" and "re-energizing Tesla solar installations at Walmart stores, once all parties are certain that all concerns have been addressed. Above all else, both companies want each and every system to operate reliably, efficiently, and safely."
112721324
submission
Rei writes:
At 10:45 PM CST, SpaceX's prototype testbed for Starship, dubbed Starhopper, took to the air for the first time — lifting up 20 meters, shifting to the side, and landing on an adjacent pad. While the craft can only be seen briefly through the fireball from ground cameras, a subsequent "engine-cam" video posted by Elon Musk shows the liftoff more clearly. The previous test, which had to be aborted, saw the vehicle engulfed in flames, only to emerge unscathed — in no small part due to being made of stainless steel rather than alumium. Fire took a part in this test as well — the liftoff ignited a brushfire which led ground staff to evacuate the site until it was under control.
A new 200 meter hop is planned for a week or two from now. While current tests are being conducted with a single Raptor engine, ultimately Starship will have 6 engines, and its first-stage booster, Super Heavy, will have 35; it is intended to have a fully-reusable, low-turnaround nominal capacity of 150k tonnes to LEO and double that in expendable mode (over double that of Saturn V), with a launch thrust of 69MN (nearly double that of Saturn V). The thermal control system for reentry — thin tiles applied only to the leading edges of Starship — is currently in testing on the just-launched CRS-18 Dragon spacecraft.
112712356
submission
Rei writes:
At 10:45 PM CST, SpaceX's prototype testbed for Starship, dubbed Starhopper, took to the air for the first time — lifting up 20 meters, shifting to the side, and landing on an adjacent pad. While the craft can only be seen briefly through the fireball from ground cameras, a subsequent "engine-cam" video posted by Elon Musk shows the liftoff more clearly. The previous test, which had to be aborted, saw the vehicle engulfed in flames, only to emerge unscathed — in no small part due to being made of stainless steel rather than alumium. Fire took a part in this test as well — the liftoff ignited a brushfire which led ground staff to evacuate the site until it was under control.
A new 200 meter hop is planned for a week or two from now. While current tests are being conducted with a single Raptor engine, ultimately Starship will have 6 engines, and its first-stage booster, Super Heavy, will have 35; it is intended to have a fully-reusable, low-turnaround nominal capacity of 150k tonnes to LEO and double that in expendable mode (over double that of Saturn V), with a launch thrust of 69MN (nearly double that of Saturn V). The thermal control system for reentry — thin tiles applied only to the leading edges of Starship — is currently in testing on the just-launched CRS-18 Dragon spacecraft.
111049116
submission
Rei writes:
On June 11th, the Uno-X hydrogen filling station in Sandvika — one of only three public stations left in Norway — exploded. It took robots and a helicopter to remotely extingush the blaze, and led to the shutdown of the remaining public hydrogen stations, as well as a halt to new hydrogen car sales by Toyota and Hyundai.
Investigation of the explosion now pins the blame on the failure to sufficiently tighten bolts on a tank. Amazingly, the explosion — which was powerful enough to send occupants of a car on a nearby road to the hospital when it detonated the airbags in their vehicle — only involved 1-3kg of hydrogen (a typical hydrogen car contains 5-6kg). While hydrogen's buoyancy helps it escape after a leak, it pools under overhangs, ignites in almost any fuel-air mixture with 1/10th the ignition energy of gasoline, and is prone to deflagration-to-detonation transitions.
110195068
submission
Rei writes:
The hydrogen fueling station in Sandvika, Norway detonated today, for reasons that are currently unknown. While nobody was using the station at the time, the explosion was powerful enough to detonate the airbags of cars in the vicinity, sending two people to hospital with minor injuries (hydrogen is prone to deflagration-to-detonation transitions even unconfined in STP conditions). Norwegian fire services have been using a robot, a helicopter, and a drone to get the blaze under control, out of fear of further detonations; fires continue but the situation is currently believed to be stable
Hydrogen stations have been dwindling in Norway as electric vehicles have been taking over the marketplace, with only three public fueling stations — including the one at Sandvika — remaining. Uno-X has closed all of its remaining stations in response to the explosion, leaving no public fueling stations open in the country for hydrogen vehicles (some additional stations service private fleets).
110121576
submission
Rei writes:
On the face of it, sodium seems like about the worst thing you could make a wire out of — it oxidizes rapidly in air, releases hot hydrogen gas in water, melts at 97,8C, and has virtually no tensile strength. Yet, in the late 1960s and early 1970s, the Nacon Corporation did just that — producing thousands of kilometers of high-gauge sodium wiring for electrical utilities — and it worked surprisingly well.
While sodium has three times the (volumetric) resistivity of copper and nearly double that of alumium, its incredibly low density gives it a gravimetric resistivity less than a third of copper and half of alumium. Priced similar to alumium per unit resistivity (and much cheaper than copper), limitless, and with almost no environmental impact apart from its production energy consumption, sodium wiring proved to be much more flexible without the fatigue or installation damage risks of alumium. The polyethylene insulation proved to offer sufficient tensile strength on its own to safely pull the wire through conduits, while matching its thermal expansion coefficient. The wiring proved to have tamer responses to both over-current (no insulation burnoff) and over-voltage (high corona inception voltage) scenarios than alumium as well. Meanwhile, "accidental cutting" tests, such as with a backhoe, showed that such events posed no greater danger than cutting copper or alumium cabling. Reliability results in operation were mixed — while few reliability problems were reported with the cables themselves, the low-voltage variety of Nacon cables appeared to have unreliable end connectors, causing some of the cabling to need to be repaired during 13 years of utility-scale testing.
Ultimately, it was economics, not technical factors, that doomed sodium wiring. Lifecycle costs, at 1970s pricing, showed that using sodium wiring was similar to or slightly more expensive for utilities than using alumium. Without an unambiguous and significant economic case to justify taking on the risks of going larger scale, there was a lack of utility interest, and Nacon ceased production.
108317984
submission
Rei writes:
Following on the heels of a highly profitable Q3 and Q4, Tesla reversed course yesterday evening and posted a sizeable GAAP operating loss of $522M and an even larger GAAP net loss of $702M. Cash-on-hand declined significantly as well, due to a large $920M bond repayment. The poor quarter came as Tesla launched the Model 3 in overseas markets, causing an increase in in-transit inventory of over 10k vehicles worth around three quarters of a billion dollars. The logistics crunch was worsened by deliveries delays that saw half of all deliveries in the quarter only in the last 15 days, pushing many intended deliveries to Q2. Model 3 margins held strong at around 20% despite a lower ASP, due to continued production process improvements, but S and X volumes and margins dropped as Tesla retooled the line for the new 'Raven' motor, predictive suspension, and other major hardware upgrades. Guidance is for a significant ramp-up in Q2 to 90-100k vehicles, although Q2 profits will be reduced by an intent to shift away from the "quarter-end delivery cycle", which makes the balance sheet improve for a given quarter but causes havoc for the delivery staff. Capital spending on Model Y tooling will also be ramping significantly in Q2. Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai is reported to be well on-track to begin production in Q4 at significantly lower cost for local markets.
108291162
submission
Rei writes:
In a move that happened surprisingly quickly given recent rumours, Tesla today unveiled newly upgraded variants of the Model S and X, offering a 10% EPA range boost to 370 miles for the Model S and 325 miles for the Model X — enough for the Model S to drive between Los Angeles and San Francisco without recharging or hypermiling. WLTP (EU) range is not yet disclosed, but would likely be around 695 and 610km, respectively. The changes come not via a new battery pack, but primarily from a new front motor based on the Model 3's rear PMSRM, which offers greater efficiency, alongside sustained track performance. To go along with the improved track performance, the vehicles' now have predictive suspension control. Charging has been improved as well, to 200kW from V3 Superchargers and 145kW from V2 — changes amplified by the reduced power consumption of the new vehicles. Acceleration remains unchanged, but the top speed is boosted from 155 to 163mph (from 250kph to 262kph).
