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Journal rfc1394's Journal: Prediction of Barack Obama's election?

The BBC World Service Saturday summary of their daily radio program The Strand has a section about a book (presumably in Portugese) from Brazil, by Monteiro Lobato called "The Black President," it's the story of how a white woman and a black man are fighting it out for election as President of the United States, and the black man wins, then follows his presidency. Oh sure, a fictionalized story about the current election and the contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama? Not really, since the book was written in 1926. As surprisingly prescient as the book was, the idea of race equality was so far fetched that in 1927 the author could not get a publisher interested in releasing an English translation in the United States; it was feared the book would have caused riots. How far we have come in 80 years. The article about the book comes about half-way (35 minutes) into the show, which you can get to listen to by the link for the show in this article.
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Prediction of Barack Obama's election?

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Where are the calculations that go with a calculated risk?