Journal einhverfr's Journal: And FARC won the battle :-( 2
As an American, I often feel like my President is unparalleled in stupidity* when it comes to managing our involvement in conflicts and crises around the world. Then, on occasion, someone does something somewhere which makes me realize we are not alone in our experience of being ruled by idiots.
* Ok, that is an overstatement. Bush may be inept at handling many crises but he has made important contributions to the resolution of others.
This week was one such week. Colombia attacked an encampment of FARC personnel in Ecuador during hostage negotiations prompting threats of war from two of Columbia's neighbors, Ecuador and Venezuela. When asked for an appology, Colombia has given given one entirly devoid of substance (sort of "sorry for the inconvenience, but we would do it again").
So the crisis began to unfold. By now at least Ecuador and Venezuela have deployed troops to the border with Colombia, and Peru may be doing the same. The three countries (often at odds with eachother) have united in support for Ecuador's sovereign control over that country's territory. Ecuador has even threatened military action against Colombia if substantive actions are taken on Colombia's side.
This was an extremely stupid move on Colombia's part. This has alienated the country which leases the space for the USAF base which the US uses for most anti-FARC missions, and it has also given Chavez an excuse to provide actual military support to the FARC. Furthermore this isolates Colombia and thus risks to cause issues for the economy of the area. Finally, as long as Ecuador is threatening military action against Colombia over the incursion, this provides FARC with a safe corridor of operations near the border of Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela. I personally believe that the FARC needs to be defeated but Colombia cannot do this by themselves. I fear this action may cause many issues for Colombia for a long time.
As if this wasn't enough, Ecuador has managed to get all of South America largely on their side. However, Colombia far from being apologetic has decided that they will take the matter to the International Criminal Court where they will charge Chavez with genocide for his alleged (though probable role) in supporting FARC. The problem with this is that the timing at least (and in all likelihood the charges themselves) is so clearly politically motivated that I don't think the ICC would act. Instead this just drives those who are infuriated over the incident into positions where more is required.
I wish I could say that I was optimistic. But I now fear that this will degrade into some sort of war. Colombia has chosen to be the worst kind of neighbor and in all likelihood this will cause serious problems for a long time. If Colombia is to defeat the FARC, they will need all the help they can get. Making enemies with three of their four neighbors does not seem wise.
FARC has scored an important political victory here in the same way that Hezbullah scored an important victory in the war with Israel last year. They have been given, through ineptness on the part of Uribe, a safe haven, and safe corridors of operation. They have also restricted the amount of aid which will be available to Colombia long-term (largely sealing the fate of the lease of the USAF base at Manta, Ecuador), and set their enemies all alone in the night.
Conflicted (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)