NFLFan's Journal: NFL Thoughts: April 28, 2006

Football thoughts (mostly about the draft):

• Here is how I see the top 5 of the draft working out:
  1. Reggie Bush, Texans
  2. Mario Williams, Saints
  3. Vince Young, Titans
  4. D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Jets
  5. A.J. Hawk, Packers
• Ray Lewis says he is the Michael Jordan of NFL defense. Who knew? Lewis then explained that he misses two fat guys in front of him that allowed him to go virtually untouched during games and likened those guys to Scottie Pippen. It amazes me how much Lewis thinks he should be allowed to run sideline to sideline unmolested-- everyone would want to play inside linebacker if they were allowed to flow freely to the ball carrier. Fighting off blocks is part of what a linebacker does. Oh by the way, Ed Reed is a lot closer to Scottie Pippen than those two fat guys ever were and perhaps even closer to Jordan than Lewis currently is. Guess everything is not great in Baltimore. No comment?
• ESPN has some 5 minute segment about drafting quarterbacks that they seem to have already shown a million times that is sort of interesting. The most interesting thing I took away from it was the GM of the Texans, Charley Casserly, saying that Terry Bradshaw and Phil Sims would be considered busts today because they took too long to develop! That explains the interest in Joey Harrington and Patrick Ramsey.

  Consider Kyle Boller, the guy just finished his third year in the league and his career so far has been a mixed bag but he is younger than Roethlisberger, who just became the youngest quarterback to win a Super Bowl. So Boller is on the right side of 25 to still be developing yet almost everyone views him as a bust!

  I think there is also an underlying problem here. With the rule changes and the evolution of offensive theory has made quarterback perhaps the most important position but the way to find and develop a quarterback has remained the same or perhaps even regressed! Teams need to get serious about drafting a quarterback before the 6th round and actually developing him instead of looking for a stud quarterback in the draft every 10-15 years.

• What really strikes me about this draft is the amount defensive backs and wide receivers said to be going in the first round. I think a safety is a good value in the mid to late first round but wide receivers and cornerbacks but not so much. Cornerback and wide receiver are two positions of great risk and is really difficult to project how their talent will translate to the NFL.
• I think a team with a high draft pick and need at quarterback would be better off by trading down a little in the first round, draft a non-quarterback in the first, and draft Brodie Croyle in the second. Croyle should not play right away but neither should any of the other quarterbacks with the possible exception of Leinart.

  The book on Croyle is that he has good to great mechanics and arm but has been nicked up some and lacks size. A lot of people think he would be a first round pick if both of his knees were not reconstructed.

• Hard to believe but it sounds like Young will be the first quarterback drafted and that Leinart could FALL. It could be very interesting if he landed in Arizona. Denny Green is building an offense out there.
• Jay Cutler's stock seems to have come back to Earth.
• I think the third or fourth running back taken will have the inside track for rookie of the year honors.
• I keep hearing names like Marshall Faulk and Gale Sayers associated with Reggie Bush. I think Bush will be good but not that good. Also, remember that Marshall Faulk did not really reach greatness until he was traded; Bush needs to land with the right team to be great and I am not sure that it is fair to expect that "right team" to be the one drafting first overall.
• I do think it is outrageous how much the top pick of the draft costs but the Texans are just stupid to try and save money there, or at least do so publicly. They have to either draft Bush or trade down.
• The Dolphins are going to be Ricky Williams-less again. Might not seem like a big deal at first but their other running back, Ronnie Brown, has always been part of a rotation and I think a RB rotation is more suited to today's game.
• So Brett Favre is coming back and Javon Walker seems to be leaving and perhaps Donald Driver is going too! Oh, but the Pack got Charles Woodson. Something does not seem right about all this.
• Ricky Manning Jr. needs to get his act together.

My two predictions...

[FortKnox]

I think Reggie Bush will be a bust. The guy was just the change of pace for LenDale White, and had a huge line pushing away Pac-10 defenders, therefore openning up giant holes for him to run through. I don't think he will be able to last a full season as a featured back, and I don't think he'll do anything between the tackles where the linebackers are as fast as they are in the NFL.
I think Vernon Davis will be the top player of the draft. I've seen a LOT of coverage of everything on the NFL network, and

Re:My two predictions...

[NFLFan]

It will be difficult for Bush to live up to the hype but I think at worst he will be a Brian Westbrook clone. Like I hinted at, I do not think he can reach his full potential in Houston but that is how the draft works. The problem is who else could the top pick be? Mario Williams does not have the consistent game tape to be the #1.

Vernon Davis does sound like a beast but he sounds like an unpolished wide receiver more than a tight end. I love the fact that he lead the ACC in receiving this past year-- t