1. Theora video is somewhat based on H.261 and is obsolete in regards with recent developments such as H.264 and VP8 from On2. Can someone knowledgable about Theora make any comment on this assertion?
Theora is actually based on On2 Technology's VP3 codec and not an H.261. It may be comparable in quality to H.261 though. Theora is good enough quality for the current Web and the small size videos we are used to through YouTube. It cannot compete with high-quality H.264, but it was not designed to do so. OTOH, the BBC Dirac codec http://dirac.sourceforge.net/
is built to compete in that space and Dirac is an open standard according to the definition of Bruce Perens: http://perens.com/OpenStandards/Definition.html
2. De facto standard of the Web is Flash video and H.264 encapsulated in either FLV or MPEG 4 file formats. This one valid and reversing the trend seems difficult to imagine.
De facto standards come and go. There have been many image formats de facto standards before we got to the current set of jpeg and png. Flash is not providing all the potential a web video format should provide. Flash was never developed to do so but accidentally slipped into that role after Quicktime, RealMedia and WindowsMedia failed to make usable web video technology. There is only one thing certain on this planet: change.
3. They believe are not at ease with the process of the organisations behind ogg / vorbis / theora development and fear standard forks.
Ah the old argument against Open Source software! Fear! No, I'm not going there. Too much has been written about this kind of marketing approach before - no need to repeat here.