pudge's Journal: Sports and Elections

Some people think the Red Sox winning the World Series is a sign Kerry will become President. Those people are on drugs. It's not like we haven't had a Democratic President from MA in the last 86 years.

However, what we've never had is an incumbent win when the Redskins lose their last home game before the election, which is scheduled for this Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, versus Green Bay. If they win, Bush wins. If they lose, Kerry wins. Or so the story goes.

So, what are the chances the Redskins win?

The Redskins have not won consecutive games since September 2003, when they beat the New England Patriots. The New England Patriots have not lost any games since, rattling off an NFL record 21 in a row. The Redskins are the only team to not win consecutive games during that streak. Talk about a curse.

If the Redskins win, does it mean the Pats lose to the Steelers at 4 p.m., thus making Bush the victor? Or do the Pats have to lose first to enable the Redskins to win consecutive games, meaning the Redskins cannot possibly win on Sunday, since their game is earlier, meaning the election is already over and Kerry has won?

Allow me to tell you how it'll go...

[FortKnox]

The Skins will lose to GreenBay (Pack is just playing a good game right now).
Steelers will beat the Pats.
Bush will be reelected.

After all three of these come to pass, I'll be charging for future predictions ;-)

Re:Allow me to tell you how it'll go...

[Bombcar]

Well, you're better than Zogby.

Naturally

[Otter]

Too bad for Kerry it's a home game (and that the streak requires a home game) -- the Packers would have have a better chance on the frozen tundra of Lambert Field.

Re:Naturally

[murr]

This year, the Packers are 1-3 at home and 2-1 on the road.

No matter what happens

[ellem]

I'm not wearing any pants.

Now or ever again.

hopefully...

[eglamkowski]

New Yorkers will be so pissed off at the Red Sox they'll vote for Bush out of spite of Boston :-p

It'd be quite something to see NYC go republican...

I'm confused.

[Bombcar]

I read that post 10 times, and I can't figure out the sequence. :( Can someone clarify or provide a flowchart?

1992

[bettiwettiwoo]

According to Best of the Web [opinionjournal.com] that rule was broken in 1992: 'It's true of course that Clinton won, and the Redskins did beat the Colts, 31-16--but that game took place Oct. 27, eight years ago yesterday. On Nov. 3, the 7-1 Skins lost to the 5-3 Buffalo Bills, 38-13--and the incumbent president won two days later.'

Re:1992

[(trb001)]

According to Snopes, the telling game is the last home game [snopes.com], not the last game before the election. That's why we're not considering the Bills' win.

Go Skins!

--trb

Re:1992

[pudge]

You're wrong on two counts. First, it was 1996, not 1992 (obviously, since the incumbent party lost in 1992 :-).

Second, and more importantly, the streak is about Washington Redskins home games, and as the wrapup notes, [canoe.ca] this game was played at Buffalo (Orchard Park, NY).

He corrects this error today [opinionjournal.com], but then tries to point out that the Redskins haven't actually played in Washington for some years. That's nonsense: the streak is about home games, not Washington games, and actually goes back to before they