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Journal pudge's Journal: Pre-Weekend Thoughts 24

Journal by pudge

I had a busy week. On Wednesday I went to the Evergreen State Fair, manning the booth for the Snohomish County GOP. A lot of foot traffic went by -- especially when the rains came down hard -- and there was a lot of positive response.

One of the main goals was to get people registered to vote. Almost everyone I talked to was registered, except a 20-year-old kid who was registering for the first time, and a Canadian woman who liked the Bush buttons (she didn't seem to have much opinion either way about Bush, but wanted one because she knew it would tweak many of her fellow Canucks back home).

Some people were undecided, and wanted to pick up some information, especially about local races. I noted that the big local candidates for the GOP are Dino Rossi for governor and George Nethercutt for Senate (I am voting for Reed Davis in the primary, but I have no illusions about who's going to win it). A woman asked if Rossi was pro-small business. Oh yeah. So many people are aching for some sanity in the state's policies toward business and taxation, and Rossi is the candidate for that. And being a social moderate, I think he has a great chance to win.

There were very few negative responses. One older man, a Democrat, complained that Bush is dividing the country. He can't talk to his Republican friends anymore, and won't let another Republican on his boat. I wanted to ask him if Bush sent him a personal letter telling him to not let Republicans on his boat, else how is that his fault? But I smiled, said yes, the country is divided, that people on both sides are angry, and left it at that.

On Thursday I had a Party for the President at my house. I signed up at Bush's web site, and invited some friends, and other people could go to the web site and ask to be invited, which some did. There weren't a lot of people, but it was worthwhile for those that did. A family in town showed up and a friend from further south came. Some more people wanted to come, but couldn't, including a couple across the street who thought they were the only Republicans in the neighborhood until they saw our yard signs. This is what I'm talking about.

The speeches at the convention were very good. I think Bush is gonna get a big "bounce" out of this, especially considering the job news today: 144,000 new jobs in August, a drop of 0.1% in the unemployment rate (to 5.4%). This is not great job news, but it is not bad news, which for Bush right now, is good news. It makes it look like the much lower numbers of June and July were not a trend, and that the economy is still moving forward.

But the speeches ... man. McCain, Giuliani, and Arnold all hit home runs. Cheney was solid. Bush was very good. And Zell Miller ... look, if you're on the left, you think he sucked because he was attacking you. But most of the rest of the country, who is not already on your side or against Bush, loved it.

The left is trying to make Miller look like Dean, and actually complaining that the media is not portraying him the same way. But the difference is that almost everyone, right or left, who saw Dean on TV thought he looked crazy. Miller's speech was not like that at all. He was powerful, summoning a convincing righteous anger with a purpose. You may think he was crazy, but most people don't see it that way, so complaining that the media doesn't portray him as crazy is just dumb. Don't be dumb.

Don't forget: you can get all the major DNC speeches and most of the RNC speeches (more to come today, I'm sure, as they finish preparing them) on iTunes Music Store, for free.

This discussion was created by pudge (3605) for no Foes, but now has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

Pre-Weekend Thoughts More

Pre-Weekend Thoughts

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  • Do they have the speaches for the 'minor' parties? I watched a lot of the coverage of the Libertarian Party, but due to work schedules, missed parts that I would have liked to have heard. I s'pose I'll have to load up iTunes at home.
  • Almost everyone I talked to was registered, except a 20-year-old kid who was registering for the first time, and a Canadian woman who liked the Bush buttons (she didn't seem to have much opinion either way about Bush, but wanted one because she knew it would tweak many of her fellow Canucks back home).

    Canadians are just as divided as the US about American politics. Not every Canadian hates Bush... far from it. Many like that he was in power during the 9/11 crisis, because of his strong response to terrori

  • Looked (Score:2)

    by jamie ( 78724 )
    "The left is trying to make Miller look like Dean, and actually complaining that the media is not portraying him the same way. But the difference is that almost everyone, right or left, who
    saw Dean on TV thought he looked crazy."

    Yes, that is the point, thank you.

  • jobs (Score:2)

    by jamie ( 78724 )

    "I think Bush is gonna get a big 'bounce' out of this, especially considering the job news today: 144,000 new jobs in August..."

    Population growth adds about 125,000 people a month who need new jobs.

    Last month the nonfarm private sector added 120,000 jobs.

    But government added 24,000 new jobs. That's what pushed Bush into "job creation" territory this month: taking the unemployed, and paying them our tax dollars to work in our increasingly-larger government. Is that something a Republican should be prou

    • Re:jobs (Score:2)

      by pudge ( 3605 ) *
      But government added 24,000 new jobs. That's what pushed Bush into "job creation" territory this month:

      Assuming 125,000 workers were added to the market, which is speculation based on averages. It's not a constant number. But it's a useful mark to work from; I'm just clarifying.

      taking the unemployed, and paying them our tax dollars to work in our increasingly-larger government. Is that something a Republican should be proud of?

      It depends on what the jobs are, doesn't it?

      the only difference between

      • "Assuming 125,000 workers were added to the market, which is speculation based on averages. It's not a constant number. But it's a useful mark to work from; I'm just clarifying."

        And I'm following up just to be clear... I'd seen the 125,000 number before and thought it was pretty authoritative, but since I posted that, I've seen estimates in the press that vary from 90,000 to 150,000.

        We can try estimating ourselves. Census.gov is of course a rat's nest, hard to find simple numbers there, but it looks lik

        • Re:jobs (Score:2)

          by pudge ( 3605 ) *
          So, noting that the 1990-2000 rate has slowed, let's round down a little, and call it an even 1.0% annual population growth. The current civilian labor force stands at 147,704,000, and at that rate monthly growth in the civilian labor force, due to population increase, would be 123,000.

          Can we assume the 1% population growth applies as a 1% growth in the labor force, too?

          Ultimately, yeah, you're right -- who knows! -- but 125,000 is a good ballpark to work from.

          Yeah.
  • The graph for August is interesting. My guess is that the debate over the swift boat ads has hurt Kerry, at least for now. Time will tell if this will stick.

    It will be interesting to see if there is a post-convention bounce in the next few days.

    • I don't think the SBVT hurt Kerry, I think his response to it hurt him.

      That aside, I think Kerry is going to have a tough time keeping pace with Bush leading into the debates, from here on. Once the debates hit, all bets are off, of course.
      • I agree, the way it seemed to hang in the news for three weeks really amplified the message and gave Kerry more opportunities to whine about unfair tactics rather than either ignoring the ads or addressing the issue head on. Of course Kerry's odd choice of response caused it to stay in the news even longer.
      • Do you think that Bush will do well in the debates?

        Hmm...

        I kind of favor Kerry on this one. Bush doesn't do such a great job at speaking extemporaneously. We'll see. Personally, I would love for Kerry to tear him a new one (rhetorically, of course)... not likely, but I can hope.

        A Cheney/Edwards debate would be fun to watch.

  • "But the speeches ... man. McCain, Giuliani, and

    Arnold all hit home runs."

    Yes, millions of people were stirred by Arnold's recollections [2004nycgop.org]:

    I finally arrived here in 1968. I had empty pockets, but I was full of dreams. The presidential campaign was in full swing. I remember watching the Nixon and Humphrey presidential race on TV. A friend who spoke German and English, translated for me. I heard Humphrey saying things that sounded like socialism which is what I had just left. But then

    • 1. He never said he watched a debate, and never even said he saw them on TV at the same time.

      2. He didn't say which streets he meant, except that they were in Austria. Read the article again: the Soviets pulled out of Styria before he was born, not Austria.

      3. He meant socialist in the American right-wing definition of the word, which was, admittedly, an error, since that word in regard to a European nation has a very different meaning. But the error was not in his meaning, but in his form.

      *shrug*
  • convincing righteous anger with a purpose

    He appeared to me to be one Book short of a frothing-at-the-mouth fire-and-brimstone Sermon. My wife (a psychologist and district attorney) said that his appearance and demeanor would lead her to have him psychiatrically evaulated for capacity to stand trial. And almost everyone I've talked to (including several people on the political right) agree -- he looked and sounded like a crazy person. Had he been wearing a painted plywood placard emblazoned with the words
    • My wife and father-in-law have degrees in psychology (latter getting his doctorate soon). Both think your wife's analysis are bunk. *shrug*
      • My wife makes decisions on whether to recommend defendants to be evaluated for capacity to stand trial every day, as part of her job. *shrug*

        Besides it was mostly a joke, not a serious clinical diagnosis. Having never met Mr. Miller how would she know?
        • Besides it was mostly a joke, not a serious clinical diagnosis. Having never met Mr. Miller how would she know?

          I couldn't tell it was mostly a joke, and yes, exactly. No one not knowing him could know.

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