pudge's Journal: Only One Percent of Iraqis Trust U.S. Forces

That's the headline, based on Rep. Murtha's speech:

A public opinion Iraqi poll, a segment of 18 provinces, all 18 provinces: More than half the Iraqis say they are headed in the wrong direction, and 82 percent say the economic situation is either poor or fair. Now, these are the Iraqis. Ninety percent say the security situation is poor or fair.

And who do they trust? Who do they trust for personal security? Forty-three percent trust the Iraqi police, 35 percent trust the Iraqi army, 6 percent trust the insurgents, 6 percent trust the insurgents, 4 percent trust the armed militia, and 1 percent, 1 percent trust the multinational force.

This was echoed on McLaughlin Group tonight where John McLaughlin said, "only one percent trust the U.S. and the multinational force" and "they don't regard the United States as a source for their personal security."

The problem is that it's not true.

On McLaughlin they had a pie chart, labelled "INT'L REPUBLICAN INST. POLL," so I found the International Republican Institute web site, and a link to the poll (it's in the PowerPoint presentation, slide 40).

Note, again, I said it was a pie chart. That means all the numbers add up to something close to 100 percent. That means you could only make one choice. That means that, for all we know, the U.S. was second or third on the list of everyone who also said they trust most the Iraqi police or army (which was a combined 78 percent).

All the poll says is that the Iraqis look to the Iraqi army, police, and insurgents for the protection of their personal safety as a first choice more than they look to the multinational troops as a first choice. And that's not bad at all: I would much rather have them trust the Iraqi police and army than our troops, for many reasons, most importantly, that this is primarily their job, not ours.

The apparent implication made by Murtha, that the Iraqis trust insurgents more than the multinational troops for their safety, is unsupportable by this poll, which provides no evidence of any kind that shows the Iraqi people do not trust the U.S. for their safety. Maybe they don't, but this poll won't tell you that.

The problem here is...

[Jhon]

... that many are reading too much in to this particular question/answer.

The question is: "Whom do you trust to protect your personal safety". Then there's a bunch of answers.

Let's assume it was "multi-choice". Or if you wish, RATING from 1-10 or something. It doesn't matter. I don't know HOW the exact question was phrased, but it didn't say "Whom don't you trust". Just because you get a response of only 1 percent doesn't mean that 99% of Iraq does NOT trust US forces. It just means there were better

Memo

[jamie]

'Wash Post' Obtains Shocking Memo from U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Details Increasing Danger and Hardship [editorandpublisher.com]

Memo [washingtonpost.com]

Security Forces Mistrusted

11. (SBU) In April, employees began reporting a change in demeanor of guards at the green zone checkpoints. They seemed to be more militia-like, in some cases seemingly taunting. One employee asked us to explore getting her press credentials because guards had held her embassy badge up and proclaimed loudly to nearby passers-by "Embassy" as she entered. Such information

Re:Memo

[pudge]

Um ... nice non sequitur.

Re:Memo

[Jhon]

I'm not sure if you read the JE, but it was dealing with Iraqi's opinions of who protects them...

The key phrase used by Murtha for his bogus claim was from the question: "Whom do you trust to protect your personal safety". I KNOW you want to be on topic -- so we can assume what you are trying to say is that it is painfully clear that a certain subset of Iraqi's do not feel that certain insurgents will help protect their personal safety... right?

And this helps move the conversation along how?

Other interesting stuff from the presentation...

[cascadefx]

Check out the trend on Slide 8, "TREND: Thinking about the future, do you feel that things will be better, the same or worse in six months?"... The percentage that thinks the situation in Iraq will only get "Worse" and "Much Worse" has gone from 3 and 1 percent respectively in April, 2005, to a whopping 17 and 9 percent respectively in March of 06. There is a better outlook on the next slide of a one year projection (9 and 9 percent respectively) but it still shows the trend of a growing pessimism.