Journal pudge's Journal: Presidential Candidates 3
There was an event in Tennessee today for GOP candidates for President. One pundit on MSNBC said something to the effect of, the Republicans don't like that there is no front-runner. Said pundit is on crack.
This is great. There are lots of good choices, and the Republicans at large love that there are choices, and that their voices have a chance of mattering two years from now, when we go to our primaries and caucuses.
I just attended the precinct caucuses. They were held statewide in Washington on March 7. The location we went to was for a joint caucus for 42 different precincts, each representing hundreds of voters, most of whom vote Republican more often than Democrat. Any voter who chooses to identify himself with the Republican party may attend the caucus, but only six people attended, five of whom are PCOs, and one of whom was a spouse. Why so few?
There are, of course, several significant reasons, including lack of public knowledge. But the biggest reason, and the reason most of the others relates to, is the fact that there's no really good reason for most people to go.
There are only two big races for our precincts: U.S. Senate and the Second Congressional District (the fightin' second!). And for those two races, the state and county GOP have already (either in fact, or close enough to it) endorsed their candidates: Safeco CEO Mike McGavick (former chief of staff of popular former Senator Slade Gorton) and U.S. Navy Captain Doug Roulstone (former commander of the USS John C. Stennis).
The only other reason to go is to vote on the party platform, which most people don't care about.
But in two years, if there is no clear frontrunner, it will be a completely different story. We will have scores of people show up to case their lots for John McCain, George Allen, Mitt Romney, and so on. And don't think for a moment we won't enjoy it, or that we won't be disappointed if it doesn't happen.
For the curious, the precise mechanics for how this works in Washington is that at the precinct caucus, voters in each precinct elect delegates to the county convention and district caucus. All Precinct Committee Officers (of which I am one, elected in the primary in 2004, 110-1) in attendance are automatic delegates. Then, at the caucus of the legislative districts (of which I am the chair, for the 39th District), the delegates elect delegates to the state convention. And at the state convention, delegates are elected to the national convention.
In 2004, I narrowly missed being elected as an alternate to the national convention, even though no one knew me. As district chair, I am likely to be elected as a delegate to the national convention in 2008, where I will get a vote for the Republican nomination for President of the United States, where -- if there is still no clear frontrunner -- my voice, my vote, will actually be of great significance.
And I don't like this? This is great stuff! Who are they kidding?
Most "experts" aren't. (Score:2, Insightful)
It's very rare to find a true expert worth listening to. The media doesn't seem to expend much effort finding them. True experts are almost never consulted by the media. Thus it is by and large best to ignore anybody the media is touting as an expert unless you happen to know from other sources that the person in question
The Bush Write In... (Score:2)
I know it was ostensibly for a show of support, but I am interested in your thoughts about whether it was truly a show of support or odd political mechanations designed to pull votes from the Frist and/or other candidates. Was it a success or failure either way?
As a strange aside (obviously it won't happen), do you think Dubya would have a chance in 2008?
Re:The Bush Write In... (Score:2)
I think it's barely worthy of note. We're a year away from any serious campaigning. And I think for McCain it was both. He wanted to hurt the other candidates because he doesn't want to get creamed, but he also doesn't want to participate because he finds it fairly distasteful to begin the campainging this early, and thinks it is better to support the President.
I'll add this, too: no Senator has spent as much time going around the country and supporting Bush these past five years t