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Journal pudge's Journal: WA Governor Prediction 14

Journal by pudge

I predict the judge will not set aside the 2004 WA governor's election. That is, that he will find for the Democrats.

I also predict he will rip the Democrats for putting together a terrible case -- and King County for putting together a terrible election system -- and commend the Republicans for putting together an excellent one. But in the end, I don't think he will find that the evidence of mistakes and fraud meets the high threshhold required for the question of setting aside an election.

That's the wrong question, though.

I don't think mistakes alone justify setting an election aside, in the general case. Nor even mistakes combined with fraud on behalf of unaffiliated individuals (the hundreds of felon voters). There is always the possibility of mistakes, and you can't throw out an election just because there are some; if you do, then there can be no such thing as a close election. You always will have a new election if the difference is smaller than a certain percentage, which doesn't strike me as particularly democratic.

However, that assumes that the given election system is well-designed and well-run, and that everything reasonable is being done to eliminate such mistakes. It assumes that the election system is designed to respect and protect the rights of the voters.

And therein lies the problem: in Washington, the Democratic-controlled legislature and Secretary of State's office, and some county elections offices, have done a lot to make sure we don't eliminate mistakes.

They refuse to purge voter rolls, to properly identify voters, to limit mail-in voting, to match up votes to voters, to make different ballot types (provisional, absentee, etc.) look different, and more.

The absence of these provisions is what gave us almost all the "mistakes" shown in court the last two weeks. And the government refuses to fix them. They refuse to protect the rights of the voters by having a good elections system, and worse, they actually -- if not intentionally -- invite fraud, as they provide no means to defend against it.

If the election system is broken, and if the government refuses to fix it, and the result is close enough to be in question, I can see only two remedies. One would be to set aside any close election until the problems are fixed. The other would be simply to order the government to fix the problems for next time.

Given that the legislature just spent a lot of time on election reform earlier this year, and didn't fix the problems, I don't think anyone should have faith in the latter option.

I've been going over this in my mind the last few days, and I was thinking I might come down in favor of the Democratic position in this case. But then I got to the end of the tunnel, and I see no other reasonable option. All the arguments for letting the election stand rely on faith in the election system, which is a losing argument.

I hope I'm wrong, and the judge sees it this way tomorrow, but I wouldn't bet on it.

This discussion was created by pudge (3605) for no Foes, but now has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

WA Governor Prediction More

WA Governor Prediction

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  • The judge is probably going to rule in favor of the Democrats pretty much for the reasons you list. Of course I expect the Republicans will file an appeal almost immediately. However I don't expect the GOP to do much beter on appeal than they have so far.

    As for the state of Washington's election system this is one of the better run states as such things go. For that matter King County is one of the better run large counties for elections on a national basis.

    Then again election systems aren't perfect and I
    • However I don't expect the GOP to do much beter on appeal than they have so far.

      I dunno. Regarding the reasons I mentioned for why I think the courts should take action, it is more likely the Supreme Court would take action such as that, for reasons such as those, than a lower court would, no?

      As for the state of Washington's election system this is one of the better run states as such things go. For that matter King County is one of the better run large counties for elections on a national basis.

      I do
      • I dunno. Regarding the reasons I mentioned for why I think the courts should take action, it is more likely the Supreme Court would take action such as that, for reasons such as those, than a lower court would, no?

        Perhaps. But I doubt it. According to one of the GOP Attorneys the options for appeal with the Supreme Court are limited. Again I expect the Court will defer to the legislature and the people.

        I don't see how that is relevant at all, even if true. We're talking about preserving the rights of th
        • Perhaps. But I doubt it.

          To clarify, I didn't mean it is likely that the Supreme Court will act, only more likely than that the lower court would.

          According to one of the GOP Attorneys the options for appeal with the Supreme Court are limited.

          That's the big part I don't have good feel for, what the appeal can consist of, what actions the Court can take, etc.

          I was simply making the observation that it is somewhat scary to think that the situation is worse elsewhere.

          Ah, I'm sorry. Yes, it is. :-)

          se
          • That's the big part I don't have good feel for, what the appeal can consist of, what actions the Court can take, etc.

            I didn't quite catch that either.

            The other question is if this case might end up in front of the SCOTUS which I believe is the only option for appeal past the WA Supreme Court. Of course there is the slight problem of convincing the SCOTUS to hear the case.

            And it is just crazy the Democrats refused to do that. Unfathomable. That would have solved almost all the mistakes we just saw. I ex
            • The other question is if this case might end up in front of the SCOTUS which I believe is the only option for appeal past the WA Supreme Court. Of course there is the slight problem of convincing the SCOTUS to hear the case.

              Yes, although I don't want it go that route. I'd prefer it not even go through the WA supreme court, as I do want the legislature to fix the problems.

              I will say that King County could fix many problems on their own without waiting for the legislature but chooses not to.

              Absolutely.
              • I think that should be done on a regular basis, regardless of whether you require additional proof, unless someone comes up with a better way to purge the voter rolls. It could be automated in some way, perhaps, if tied to the DL, as you suggest. That would probably be fine with me. The point is merely to have some way to make sure the voters on the rolls are verified on a regular basis.

                Ok I take that back, as you point out doing automatic registration at the DMV effectively re-registers everyone. I was m
                • Funny thing is when you sit down and discuss things how much common ground there is. Now we don't agree on everything but there is no reason we can't work on getting those things we both agree to accept implemented.

                  Now all we need is for you and me to be elected. ;-)

                  Regardless possiblity that vote by mail increases the problems it is very popular among the voters.

                  Unfortunately.

                  Perhaps making election day a holiday where everyone except electon workers and those in essential services had the day off
    • Heh, the judge basically said what I said, and -- as I figured -- noted that while the elections system needs to be fixed, and the recent changes to make voting "easier" will hurt the rights of legal voters, that it is the job of the people to fix that, not the court.

  • Update (Score:2)

    by ces ( 119879 ) *
    Rossi has declined to file an appeal and conceeded.

    Very graciously as well. Lots of kind words of support for Gov. Gregiore.

    Now I remember why I almost voted for this guy ...

    So the question is what office is he likely to run for next? (assuming he stays in politics)
    • Yeah, I just got the e-mail.

      I think the entire state GOP will try to convince him to run for the Senate, and I think that if he does, it will really scare Cantwell. And it should.

      It was before my time: was there much dislike of Gorton at the time, dissatisfaction, when Cantwell beat him? Why did she win?

      I am not convinced he will run for Senate though. He loves being in WA and I think he wants to be governor. I think he might stick around and make another go of it. But if I had to guess, I'd give it
      • I think the entire state GOP will try to convince him to run for the Senate, and I think that if he does, it will really scare Cantwell. And it should.

        Of the potential GOP Senate canidates Rossi or Dunn would be the most likely to defeat Cantwell.

        It was before my time: was there much dislike of Gorton at the time, dissatisfaction, when Cantwell beat him? Why did she win?

        A lot of dissatisfaction with Gorton plus the feeling he was out of touch with the state and spending too much time on the concerns o

  • huh (Score:2)

    by Thalia ( 42305 )
    Did you think the same thing about Florida? Or are mistakes that are made by Republicans acceptable?

    While I agree that we need to fix the electoral system, I do think that the issues are national, not just focused on King County. And to be honest, removing people illegally from the rolls is a much worse mistake than allowing felons who have served their time to vote.

    • Re:huh (Score:2)

      by pudge ( 3605 ) *
      Did you think the same thing about Florida?

      Think what same thing? That the problems should be fixed for next time? Yes, I did. That the courts should step in and force them to fix the problems, if they don't do it? Yep.

      Or are mistakes that are made by Republicans acceptable?

      When did you stop beating your mother?

      And to be honest, removing people illegally from the rolls is a much worse mistake than allowing felons who have served their time to vote.

      I never proposed removing people illegally fro

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