so we have another 5 years of eking out of old order before people REALLY have to take notice.
Possiblly much more than that.
XP and andriod 2.x are dying. They aren't dead yet but in a few years time their relavence will likely have declined to the level where website operators think it reasonable to stop supporting their default browsers. Once that happens we will be able to use SNI (and tell the holdouts still on XP to "use firefox or chrome damnit")
Once that happens it will be possible to put multiple SSL websites behind one IP reducing the IP demand on the hosting side. With end lusers put behind CGN, SSL web hosting running multiple sites per IP and basic VM hosting using front end load balancers to let them share IPv4 IPs it should be possible to keep IPv4 going for a long time.
One interesting question is what price will IPv4 addresses reach, currently it seems to vary from about $7-$25 per address depending on block size (http://ipv4auctions.bstocksolutions.com/)