[...] you also have to create low-cost reusable rockets designed for repeat operation on the moon with little to no maintenance, fueled by materials from the lunar surface. Which is a vastly harder, more expensive task. After all, it makes no financial sense to mine a tonne of water from the surface of the moon and then deliver it into lunar orbit or beyond with 10 tonnes of hardware/propellant sent from Earth, which in turn took 100 tonnes to get off the surface of the Earth. Everything has to be long-term operable entirely in the lunar environment with lunar resources.
There's not any realistic budgeting scenario where it's even remotely cheaper, all capital costs included, to get your water from the moon in the remotely near future than to just launch it from the earth on existing rockets.
Electromagnetic mass drivers might make more sense than rockets for launching raw materials from the moon. At least that was what Gerard K. O'Neill and company concluded decades ago... Of course, you still have to build the mass driver on-site or deliver it there and run a mining operation.
I have to think that for sufficiently large scale offworld operations, you're going to want to mine materials from somewhere - either the moon or asteroids. As interesting as the topic is, I don't think we'll be building semi-permanent moon bases, Babylon 5, or mars colonies within ten years though.