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Comment: Re:Valued by Results (Score 1) 328

by kraut (#38485974) Attached to: Why the Occupy Movement Skipped Silicon Valley

No 2: reform the banking system to prevent fraud and manipulation, with the most frequent item being to restore the Glass-Steagall Act â" the Depression-era law, done away with by President Clinton, that separates investment banks from commercial banks.

That just goes to show how stupid and ill informed people are.

Glass-Steagall, and particularly the artificial split between retail and investment banking, would have done nothing to prevent the crisis. Bear Stearns went bust - pure investment bank. Lehmans went bust - pure investment bank. In the UK, Northern Rock went bust - pure retail bank - just too bloody stupid to secure long term funding. Ditto HBOS. In the US, Citi was in trouble due to the mortgages it sold - not because of it's investment banking and trading activities.

And don't talk to me about AIG. When you have people who get paid a lot of money to understand what they're buying, it's their fault if they don't.

This law would correct the conditions for the recent crisis, as investment banks could not take risks for profit that create kale derivatives out of thin air, and wipe out the commercial and savings banks.

No it wouldn't. But kale derivatives? Kale? ? What on earth are you talking about?

And if we must discuss brassicas, wouldn't brussel sprouts be more seasonal?

Comment: Re:What was the security protocol? (Score 1) 151

by kraut (#37633016) Attached to: UBS: Our Risk Systems Did Detect $2bn Rogue Trader

The entire derivativves trading system is a giant Ponzi scheme

I don't think you quite understand what a Ponzi scheme is, but derivatives certainly aren't one.

the value of fees charged by bankers for trading in derivatives based on on changes in the value of a security exceeds the value of the underlying security over a relatively short time. (it is MINUTES for gold!)

Investing in gold is arguable more like a ponzi scheme than derivatives are. Gold has no intrinsic value, and provides you no income - it only has a value if you can find some other sucker that buys it off you. Hopefully for more than you paid. Or not. Oops.

Someone then "looses" a great deal of money. In reality, the "missing" money has already been paid out in commissions to banks for trading - and "bonuses" for traders. (Anyone who understands differential equations can see that vastly more money is paid out to bankers than is actually invested in stocks and bonds, and the banks are sucking the life blood from the world's economic system).

Differential equations are wonderful, and it's great you understand them, but clearly they're not that useful for calculating percentages.

You might also want to investigate concepts such as hedging, realised and unrealised PnL (Profit and Loss), and what happens to your PnL when it turns out that your hedge was made up. It's not difficult compared to differential equations.

But why let facts and understanding get in the way of a good rant, eh? ... snip...

"Institutional investors do not care about the long term, and are quite happy to feed the system, so long as they get a percentage, and a "plausible deniability" get out clause when it goes wrong.

Institutional Investors like pension funds don't care about the long term? Okay, we're not talking long term like millenium clock long tern, but actually they do care very much about the long term.

They also care very much about the short term because individual investors care about the short term, and will take their money out and put it elsewhere if an institution has a couple of quarters where it does badly.

Plausible deniability - or more precisely, CYA (Cover Your Ar....) is, of course, extremely important.

Why did people give all their money to someone who "Madoff" with it?

Because he consistently, over decades, paid out an outstanding, reliable return on their money, and it was actually quite hard for an unsophisticated investor to understand why that wasn't kosher.

Better questions are: Why did professional investor invest with him? (answer: A lot of smart ones did not!) Why didn't the regulators act on the numerous tip offs?

Why did the bank not stop him? Because prior to catastophic disaster, he seemed to be "on a roll", and was winning more than he was losing.

No, because to the risk management system it looked like he was flat risk. He wasn't "making" anywhere near the amount of money that he later lost.... and it looked like he was well hedged. The flaw was that the system didn't spot that the hedges were fake.

Banks do not employ people who understand differential equations in a management role

I'm quite sure that retail banks rarely do that, but you underestimate investment banks. Where do you think all those really bright physicists end up - there are only so many jobs at CERN et. al.

and most bank directors have only a marginal grip on reality.

There are a lot of psychopaths, and the concentration increases the higher you go. That's probably true of a lot of organisations, but is a particularly pronounced effect in investment banks. That, and their incentives are misaligned.

Comment: Re:would somebody tell me (Score 1) 482

by kraut (#37042216) Attached to: The London Riots and Facial Recognition Technology

Well, if you're well enough to loot, surely you're well enough to work? ;)

The problem with incapacity benefit is largely that it's been used for years by governments to massage unemployment figures down. It is simply inconceivable that there are 3 million people in the UK who are completely unable to work.

As to housing benefit, it is being capped at an extremely high level; IIRC you'd have to earn something 1.5 * median income to have the same amount left over after taxes (and don't forget that if you get housing benefit, you're likely to be "entitled" to other benefits on top).

London is extremely expensive; lots of people can't afford to live there. It's hardly fair to take money away from working people who already have to commute from outside London to support people who want to live there, but expect others to pay.

Good day for overcoming obstacles. Try a steeplechase.

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