I might resent the fact that you're calling me a pessimist but the only thing I can actually infer from your statement is that you're an optimist. I'm a realist. Have been all my life so I look like a pessimist to the optimist and an optimist to the pessimist.
But, you've missed the point. The bicycle is more efficient than the bus or the train so it's a poor choice for people with bikes to put the bike on the bus or the train. I've seen commuters in our city go from one end of town to the other and have to cross bridges and go through down town to do it without resorting to putting their bikes on a bus or train. Before I injured my back I used to do the same thing. What's the matter with these other people that they have to put their bicycles on a bus to cross town? It's simple, they're as lazy as all the rest of the people who ride the bus or the train.
As for me, after so long my back is probably pretty much calcified so I could probably go back to riding some sort of adult trike for short trips but, to be honest, I wouldn't want to be associated with the cyclists in this town. They have a sense of entitlement that results in them running red lights, stop signs, ignoring the 30 Kmph speed limits on their much fought for bike routes and even starting a campaign to have the provincial laws re-written so that bicycles are legally exempt from any traffic control signals or signs. Unfortunately, I've seen indications that the lawmakers in the area are starting to go along with the idea. There are already plenty of signs up indicating where the bicycles can abandon the street and compete with the pedestrians for space on the side walks. The day that happens I really will hand in my driver's license and just sit on the front porch, watch the bicycles crash into each other ( I live at the intersection of two bike routes. ) and make bets on who can get up and dial 911 for help first. (if no one moves after three or four minutes, I might call 911 myself.) I've already seen too many near misses. We just need a few more riders coming at the intersection with the belief that they have the right of way since they're on the bike route for the collisions to really start happening.
Oh, yeah, and an electric assisted bicycle is going to be just the method of transportation for my 76 year old mom with osteoporosis (a crumbling back) to get to her doctor's appointments. She can't even walk around the block but, with the car, we can get her out for her appointments and she can see some sights. All that would stop when the car is finally banned from Vancouver. She and many like her, some who still can drive for themselves would become shut-ins.
AS for whether or not there are serious movements to eliminate the car from the urban landscape I might point to these sites.
http://www.peopleforbikes.org/blog/entry/bicycle_cities_a_plan_for_car-free_communities
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/12/creating-a-car-free-community/
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/12/how_to_build_a_1.php
http://www.bikeradar.com/news/article/south-carolina-to-build-car-free-community-26499/
http://www.worldcarfree.net/resources/free.php
and these are only a few of the things you'll find if you google "car free city".
And, of course, there is the planned future jewel in the sustainable city crown, Masdar City, http://www.masdar.ae/en/home/index.aspx , where you couldn't even bring your privately owned electric car. There won't be any roads to accommodate it.
So, you'll have to pardon me when I say that here seems to be a movement to eliminate the car from the possible selections of transportation in the future and that this will create a new, or perhaps I should say will recreate an old, class of shut-ins.