I'd say that change over time is 100% certain for everything. Nothing has ever been the same since time began. The state of the universe is change.
Lots of mutations consistently happening over a long period of time is not even analogous to "then a miracle occurs", let alone "exactly equivalent".
There is proof that small mutations occur. There is not proof of mutation occurring in real time. I.e. no one has observed a mutation happen under a microscope (we don't have the technique) - we have proof after the fact by comparing changes in DNA.
Nothing happened "just right". It just happened. It is essentially meaningless. You shouldn't care about it.
You might as well start asking "what are the chances that matter is attracted to matter?" or "what are the chances that all the stars in the milky way lined up to make a giant spiral arm?".
Stuff happens, we see it happening, we can model it, we don't know why it exists, that is life, enjoy it while it lasts.