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Comment Re:Two reasons (Score 1) 222

I prefer FiveThirtyEight to Real Clear Politics. As they point out frequently, national polls mean little or nothing in the primary race because primary elections don't work the way polls do. The rules are also malleable right up to the moment before the actual selection takes place at the convention.

FiveThirtyEight places a great deal of weight on what it calls the Endorsement Primary. This is a points system where each endorsement of a candidate by a member of the House of Representatives is worth one point, each Senator's endorsement is worth five points, and each governor's is worth 10 points. By this scale, there are theoretically up to 1435 points to award, though members of one party are unlikely to endorse someone from another party. In any case, Clinton leads the Endorsement Primary for Democrats by 447 to Sanders's mere 2 points (and O'Malley has one point). Republicans are a much more mixed bag with Bush at 41, Rubio at 29, Christie at 25, and Huckabee at 24. Everyone else is at 15 or fewer points (Trump and Carson have zero), and only 168 points worth of endorsements have even been made among candidates still in the race, so there's still a lot of wait-and-see going on.

I expect the party will push for some of the others to drop out to make the Iowa slate a little cleaner, but Iowa and New Hampshire are worthless as predictors of the nation, doing little better than chance at predicting the actual nominee. They act as filters: if you can't make a halfway decent showing there, you're probably not going to do it elsewhere. But ultimately, the party has a great deal of control by pushing superdelegates to vote in a certain way, and even a seemingly close match-up going into the convention could turn out to be a nearly runaway victory for whomever the Establishment prefers.

Comment Re:Holy crap ... (Score 1) 222

Clinton is almost a lock. Something hugely catastrophic would need to happen for her to fail to get the nomination.

Jeb Bush is another story. He's faltering, but he may also be waiting for others to tear down Trump and Carson before trying to mount a serious comeback. Still, Rubio seems to be slowly becoming the Establishment favorite, and that counts for a lot.

Comment Re:I think this is fair. (Score 0, Offtopic) 222

Al-Qaeda affiliates and ISIS actually do fight each other. ISIS and al-Nusra Front have been at opposition for a while. Remember that ISIS came out of what was al-Qaeda in Iraq, and announced a merger with al-Nusra without discussing it with anyone else. Al-Nusra told them to get bent, AQI declared they were going ahead with it, Zawahiri told everyone to chill out, and AQI announced it was breaking from al-Qaeda. Al-Nusra has remained allied with al-Qaeda, and sometimes coordinates with the Free Syrian Army and other rebel groups, especially when fighting ISIS.

This is one of the weirdest things about ISIS: even al-Qaeda is against them, says they go too far, and thinks they're more extreme than the Quran allows. They have basically the entire world--including most terrorists--against them.

Comment Re:r u srs (Score 1) 519

There are plenty of English-language publications from media sources in the region. There are also reports from various groups that consistently paint the same picture.

The view of ISIS as "evil" isn't a twisting of the media. When you've managed to turn the entire world against you with such disparate groups as the West, Russia, and al-Qaeda essentially on the same side opposing you, it's usually a good sign you're on the wrong path.

Comment Programs using BitTorrent (Score 5, Interesting) 175

Aside from file sharing, how many programs use BitTorrent? I'm not challenging the defense here, as I also don't equate BitTorrent with piracy, especially since my main use is personal file synchronization using BitSync and downloading Linux ISOs.

I seem to recall that Blizzard's uses it, which I suspect is a non-trivial percentage of traffic. Do any other game management systems make use of it?

Comment Re:The AMD chip (Score 3, Informative) 311

Intel doesn't want AMD to die off because that would subject its practices to monopoly scrutiny. It shares just enough patent information with AMD to allow it to trail a bit behind (in exchange for access to AMD patents, of course) and not completely collapse. The one time that AMD managed to move ahead of Intel (when the Athlon was the king of the hill), Intel pulled out all the stops to prevent it getting a solid foothold in the PC market until Intel's Core 2 Duo could come along and put Intel technologically back in the lead. AMD hasn't had the money to effectively compete since then in part because Intel ensured that its bank accounts couldn't build up too far.

Comment Re:Sheesh Dice... (Score 1) 289

So is the group "women who have made false accusations of harassment" or "women in general"?

Because if the group is "women who have made false accusations of harassment and have refused to accept responsibility" sure - I have no problem with saying that "women who have made false accusations of harassment and have failed to accept responsibility" should be publicly outed.

But if you're saying "women in general" should be lumped in, then holy shit, you're insane. No one should have to apologize or accept responsibility for anyone's actions but their own or those that they are directly in control of/have authority over. I personally refuse to take responsibility for stupid behavior because some people in my demographic bucket behave poorly, and even more so, fuck anyone who says that I am obligated to say "I don't like that behavior!" when someone in my demographic bucket behaves poorly.

Further, if you're endorsing the "women in general" notion - then the exact same reasoning holds true for men.

So please, be clear: who bears the responsibility, in your opinion? Women who make false accusations of harassment or women in general?

Diplomacy is the art of saying "nice doggy" until you can find a rock.