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Comment: Numbers reported incorrectly (Score 4, Insightful) 193 193

The way the model results are reported needs to change. The worst case results were presented to the public as the expected outcome. This is something between highly deceptive and unethical. (think yelling "Fire!" in a crowded movie theater.) The best, worst and average outcomes from the model need to be reported. Perhaps even two sets of best, worst and average outcomes. One with large scale intervention and one with zero intervention.

A very simple way to think about when you know the model has failed: The model has failed when it makes 100 predictions with 95% certainty and more than 5 of the actual outcomes are outside the bounds defined by the best and worst outcomes. Note: I said SIMPLE.

The modelers need to be careful about what they say. Next time they predict armageddon, no one will take them seriously.

Comment: Delivered versus reviewed (Score 3, Insightful) 143 143

And who would trust MS not to show one version of the software and deliver something compiled from slightly different sources? Remember MS is more than happy to turn over dissidents' emails to the Chinese government. MS will say: "We follow all applicable laws in the countries where we operate." So what are the US laws about spying on anyone outside the country? I think it is required under NSL's.

Comment: Why now? (Score 3, Interesting) 538 538

She must have sent a huge number of e-mails to 1000's of people. Didn't someone notice that the e-mails were from hillary@gmail.com instead of hillary@state.gov?

If I got an email from her dealing with official business, I would have questioned why it wasn't from a "real" e-mail address - as in whitehouse.gov or whatever.
Why didn't anyone say something sooner? Didn't someone suspect her emails the same way I would suspect an e-mail from a Nigerian prince needing help?

Comment: MH370 (Score 5, Interesting) 439 439

We can't find MH370. If we can't find a missing plane in the ocean, then the tech for finding subs has a ways to go before it makes submarines obsolete. Plus, I bet all these detection techniques only work over a short distance. You'd need a lot of detectors to get good coverage. The ocean is large. Plus, anything active (sound, lasers, etc) can be detected by the sub and avoided.
Plus, for non-ship based sensors, you try covering the ocean with highly sensitive detectors. Things that are highly sensitive and the ocean don't mix - unless you are going to pull each detector up on a regular basis for maintenance. Plus, detectors require power. Getting power 50-200 km offshore isn't all that easy. Surface ships pinging away in shallow waters pose the greatest danger. But for every threat, there is a way to counter it. Satellite tracking of enemy ships so subs have some warning of what's coming. Special coatings to reflect lasers. Active cancellation of the acoustic waves.

Comment: Both wrong (Score 1) 409 409

Wow. Both sides seem clueless.

So this guy things: I saw some people walking around and they weren't dead. Chernobyl must be completely safe. How could 60 minutes think this place is dangerous? That is like a high schooler saying: All my friends smoke, and look at them. Fine. Or a reporter looking at coal miners in Virgina saying: people go in the mines. They come back out. I didn't see any negative effects.

How about: "We took a sample of 100 people who had lived in the Chernobyl area for 10-12 years and studied cancer rates and health problems against the general population." or "There are X kilograms of isotope Y (alpha/beta/gamma emitter) with a half life of Z years per square mile." This isn't reporting, this is talking out your ass. If Ron Adams wants to play reporter, he should try including a verifiable fact or two.

I saw some not dead folks walking around is not an argument.

Comment: Capacity planning (Score 3, Interesting) 242 242

"Because the campus is a highly secured island, few people leave for coffee, and the lines, both in the morning and mid-afternoon, can stretch down the hallway."

What a waste of time and resources!

For a group of people who likes to give the impression they are all super geniuses (and by extension deserve X 100 billion a year in funding), I would expect at least one person could have done some capacity planning and figured out how big the Starbucks need to be for that location. How about some accountability? Fire the person who planned this coffee shop. His/her mistakes cost the country the hourly rate of each person in line * the time they waste standing around.

Comment: Cost (Score 2) 118 118

So I have 10 devices I want to hook up. The AC, the lights, refrigerator, washing machine, toaster, whatever. Does that mean I need 10 phone and data contracts with AT&T at 30 bucks (or more) each and then the payments recur every month? I can see why AT&T might like this technology.

Next question. I had AT&T once. Calls kept dropping because they sold more phone contracts than their cell towers could support. What happens when each person goes from one connection to 5 (or more)?

Off topic. Why am I not excited for 5G? It seems 4G and 5G designed so that you can hit your data cap on the unlimited plan for the month by running a download at max bandwidth for 30 minutes. This seem to be designed to bill people 100's extra every month for exceeding their plan rather than actually giving people higher download speeds.

Comment: Re:antibiotics (Score 2) 174 174

Yes. Broad spectrum stuff for bacteria that most likely already has resistance. If there is an infection and it does turn nasty, then they will worry picking their antibiotics more carefully. Or should I say correctly?

I'm a big believer in getting a culture to be positive of what needs to be killed and then picking an antibiotic that has some chance of working. I should add: IAMAD.

I'm still waiting for the advent of the computer science groupie.

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