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Comment: Re:List of Scientific Reversals (Score 1) 474

by dorpus (#38893591) Attached to: Trials and Errors: Why Science Is Failing Us

"Considering that that particular line, that early in the article, from a place you shouldn't be citing anyway, indicates that Gobal Cooling was never a widely accepted theory of how the climate was going to evolve, I'm right."

Would you mind showing me how you parsed the sentence to interpret that "Gobal Cooling was never a widely accepted theory"?

"For what it's worth (i.e., very little), computer science and Physics, with publications in both fields."

If you are who you say you are, it sounds like you suffer from the bias of people employed in the "exact" sciences. In the health sciences, shrill hyperbole and media sensationalism is integral to the establishment. Professors will treat people like they're stupid for not believing in pop-psychology or pop-health books, even though they are riddled with obvious errors. People who come from the exact sciences believe that there are exact mathematical solutions to everything, and that the math cannot be refuted. But then, mathematics is a closed system of logical reasoning with no implied relationship to reality. In the real world, numbers are just so many measurements which contain both bias and random error.

Comment: Re:List of Scientific Reversals (Score 1) 474

by dorpus (#38888155) Attached to: Trials and Errors: Why Science Is Failing Us

"You link to Wikipedia (which contradicts you in the third sentence),"

According to my reading, the third sentence says "In contrast to the global cooling conjecture, the current scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth has not durably cooled, but undergone global warming throughout the twentieth century."

So yes, it supports what I said that there has been a reversal of opinion. I'm not sure what you are trying to assert.

"I'd like to know where you work so I can avoid that place like the plague."

My institution prefers people who can argue with reason, rather than ad hominem attacks. What is your specialty, and what do you claim has not happened? I doubt it would surprise any scientist that policy recommendations have changed over time.

Comment: Re:List of Scientific Reversals (Score 1) 474

by dorpus (#38885883) Attached to: Trials and Errors: Why Science Is Failing Us

1) Global cooling theory was claimed by serious scientists in the 1970s.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling

2) I never said mammograms, I said self-inspections. And I was there in the 1990s when college campuses had public health representatives giving detailed instructions on how to perform breast self-exams. Since then, doctor's offices have been flooded with hysterical women convinced that they have breast cancer, so they have done away with this recommendation.

3) Many recent studies say that alcohol-based sanitizers are useless, as the alcohol evaporates in a few seconds and does not kill very many germs anyway. The alcohol has to be at a high concentration for it to be effective, but people do not like higher concentrations because it irritates the skin. I work in public health.

4 and 5: check "Dr. Spock's Baby & Child Care". At the time, the medical establishment treated this as the bible of child rearing. Anybody who did not follow Dr. Spock's guidelines was considered a retrograde idiot.

6) Does not contradict anything I said. The recommendation reversal stands.

7) I was at seminars by dermatologists recently who said this stuff. The American Academy of Dermatology today says to avoid sunlight and to get vitamin D only through artificial supplements: "Get vitamin D safely through a healthy diet that may include vitamin supplements. Don't seek the sun."
Source: http://www.aad.org/skin-care-and-safety/skin-cancer-prevention/be-sun-smart/be-sun-smart

8) My dad was part of the studies that promoted hormone replacement therapy in the 90s. Today, it is a dirty word.

9) NASA scientists predicted this. See: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/09/19/nasa-scientists-predicted-new-ice-age-1971

10) Check http://www.smithsonianmag.com/specialsections/ecocenter/air/EcoCenter-Air-Acid-Rain-and-Our-Ecosystem.html?c=y&page=2
"In the late 1970s, researchers surveyed 217 lakes above 2,000 feet in the Adirondacks and found that 51 percent were highly acidic. The news was so grim that scientists began attempting to breed more acid-tolerant strains of trout. One New York State employee compared the area to Death Valley. A decade later, a larger study that included 849 lakes higher than 1,000 feet found that 55 percent were either completely devoid of life or on the brink of collapse."

11) If you can find a source today that argues high-carb, low-protein diets are good, let me know. They would be far outside the mainstream establishment today. My specialty is obesity and diabetes research.

12) Psychologists used to promote sex therapy until the mid-1980s, but you won't find anyone advocating it today.

"For someone who is bitching about science, you sure don't have a fucking clue what is going on."

Actually, I am a scientific insider with a PhD. Having insider access has shown me how arbitrary the scientific reasoning process is. People have their agendas, and getting grants is all about putting on a provocative sales pitch. A typical grant identifies a threat to society, and how this research will be the salvation. I have been to more than one seminar where a scientist debunked some opposing theory, then repeated all the exact same mistakes to promote their own, and the room gave a standing ovation. I thought it was done in parody, but they were serious. It made me realize that the scientific establishment can be no smarter than fundamentalists in trailer parks.

Comment: List of Scientific Reversals (Score -1, Troll) 474

by dorpus (#38883521) Attached to: Trials and Errors: Why Science Is Failing Us

- 1970s: the earth will turn into an iceball. 1990s-: the earth will turn into a fireball.
- 1990s: every woman should examine their breasts in the shower. 2012: leave it to doctors.
- 2008: people should use hand sanitizer and eschew hand washing. 2012: people should wash hands and eschew sanitizers.
- 1960s: babies should not be held or breastfed by their mothers, because they will fail to develop as individuals. 2012: all babies should be breast fed, the longer the better.
- 1960s: babies should sleep on their stomachs all the time to avoid SIDS. 2012: babies should never sleep on their stomachs to avoid SIDS.
- 1990s: every person over age 50 should get a colonoscopy. 2010: improper colonoscopies are causing thousands of infections and perforations.
- 1960s: everybody should have a sun lamp to receive an adequate dose of light in the winter. 2012: Sunlight should be avoided at all costs. When going to the mailbox, coat yourself in a thick layer of sunscreen.
- 1990s: All women over age 60 should receive hormone replacement therapy. 2012: Nobody should get hormone therapy.
- 1970s: the Earth will run out of food by 2000, and billions of people will starve. 2012: The obesity epidemic is unstoppable, therefore fat children should be taken away from parents.
- 1970s: acid rain will turn North America into a treeless desert, due to the relentless march of industrialization. 2012: where are the factories?
- 1980s: people should eat high-carb, low-protein diets because protein causes diseases. 2012: people should eat high-protein, low-carb diets because carbs cause diseases.
- 1970s: Free love, free sex. Family is an antiquated, useless institution. 1980s-: Family values! AIDS!

Comment: Museum of Scientific Hysteria? (Score 1, Interesting) 83

by dorpus (#38881849) Attached to: Inside the Museum of Nonsense

Why not build a museum on the history of hoaxes propagated by leading scientists? Over the years, scientists were absolutely sure that some doomsday event would happen. They were sure that the 1910 Haley comet would extinguish all life on Earth; some flu pandemic would kill billions of people because we are "overdue"; the earth is supposed to heat to a fireball, or cool to an ice ball; genetic "degeneracy" would take over the human race; killer bees would wipe out humanity; nuclear war is a certainty; the list goes on.

Or we could talk about the history of public health recommendation flip-flops. Parents should never pick up, hug, or breast-feed their babies, except now we should breast-feed them until they are 5 years old. Babies should be put on their stomachs, except now they should never be put on their stomachs. Everybody should get a flu shot, except that they never work. Nobody should ever wash their hands, but just use hand sanitizer; but wait, this year, they should wash their hands. Every woman should squeeze their breasts in the shower, but now only doctors should. Every man over 50 should get a colonoscopy, except the procedure does more harm than good, since nobody bothers to clean the probes and they puncture intestines.

If we won't stand together, we don't stand a chance.

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