We can get some idea of the likelihood of some stages by looking at how long in took for them to occur on earth. For instance, it took about 1 billion years for life to form on earth, but after that it took an additional 3 billion years before the Cambrian Explosion, where we saw significant diversification of complicated lifeforms. That 3 billion year gap allows time for all sorts of global cataclysms--we had one that nearly wiped out life during the snowball earth. After the Cambrian Explosion it took a mere half billion years to reach technological intelligence.
But it's very dangerous to simply extrapolate from a single data point (Earth) - there are quite a few environmental elements that could massively influence those timescales - for example the early sun was quite a bit fainter than it currently is, so those 3 billion years might just have been necessary to reach some kind of tipping point favouring the development of complex multicellular life, on another planet under slightly different conditions, this might take just a fraction of that time (or it might never reach that tipping point) - similarly, it took about half a billion years to reach technological intelligence, but that may just be due to particular circumstances on our world, the timing, place and cause of the different mass extinctions, the conditions occuring which permitted the different precursor steps that may be required for a technological civilisation to occur (things like the move from water to land, the increase in available energy afforded by endothermy,