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Comment Re:2050-2065+ (Score 1) 285

SpaceX has been operating for 13 years and have yet to put a single person into orbit. They have yet to even succeed at their stage recovery mechanism, which is the cornerstone of their cheap access to orbit plan. Honestly, what makes you think they'll put a man on Mars in 10-20 years? They simply don't have the any track record of success to support such an aggressive time line.

Comment Re:Before a human walks on Mars... (Score 1) 285

Actually, that's not good enough if we're talking about preserving life beyond the probabilistic expiration date of Earth. People are talking about asteroid hits, which are once every several million year events. If a Mars colony is a hedge bet against those types of catastrophes, then the atmosphere has to last longer than the mean time between events.

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