Wajsbrem's Journal: [Firmage.org List] The Coming Singularity

[Firmage.org List] The Coming Singularity, email sent: Wednesday, 3 November 2004, 1:34:36 AM

Hello friend,

It's been a long time since I last sent a message to you. So much has transpired in the past 3+ years, it's hard to know where to start. I'll be sending a few messages to you in coming months, exploring several vital issues and a fascinating, compelling project I'm leading that is scheduled to launch in the first half of 2005.

But on the day of an election almost universally seen as a key inflection point for the United States and the world, I'd like to share some thoughts on issues bigger than those talked about by either candidate for President.


A Forcing Function for a New Civilization

Since the paradigm-shattering attacks of September 11, 2001, the U.S. has declared a "war on terror that will not end in our lifetimes". The Bush administration has established a new pre-emptive National Security policy, radically expanded budgets for defensive and offensive military operations, invaded two countries, only one of which -- even according to the official story now -- harbored real threats to our nation, and cracked down on civil liberties at home.

The results so far: the Muslim world is inflamed toward the U.S. like never before in the history of our nation. Afghanistan remains significantly in the control of warlords, yet is struggling to achieve stability amidst hopeful elections, resistant fundamentalists and a record-setting, exploding heroin trade that remains central to its economy. And the primary objective of that war -- Osama bin Laden -- remains at large.

For the moment, at least, Iraq appears to be spinning out of control. Daily attacks on troops, contractors and Iraqi officials are rising. Beheadings of hostages are horrifying a world that relied upon pronouncements of Bush and Blair that a different kind of outcome would follow from their attempt at liberation. As a result of the chaos unleashed in Iraq, it seems painfully likely that new Osama bin Ladens are being minted every time Iraqis witness the dismemberment of their family members -- now numbering at least in the tens of thousands.

In Iraq we can see the inevitable Newtonian reaction to unilateral occupation by a foreign culture, reaffirming laws of social physics we should have learned many wars ago.

Meanwhile, the central vortex of Middle-East conflict between Israelis and Palestinians remains largely ignored by Washington. And its temperature continues to rise. In the past three years, thousands have died, a new 20-foot-high Biblical Wall -- unthinkable in 2000 -- is now racing towards completion, and politics on both sides of that wall continue to polarize.

In this context, it is essential that people around the world explore whether the objectives of U.S. foreign policy are actually that same as those officially declared by the Bush administration. For it is possible that the real objectives are quite different than those you know about. It is possible that the real objectives have a lot to do with an epochal crisis facing human civilization, an event likely known best to oil men. It is an event that will challenge every aspect of our modern life, an event that is just now breaking into public view: Peak Oil.


The Energy Crisis

If you have followed my writings in the past five years, you know that I have supported efforts to discover new solutions to this epic challenge of our time: developing new, non-polluting energy and propulsion technologies for the growing appetites of modern society.

In the past six months, it has become clear to me that we are running out of time to respond to this challenge, much more rapidly than I previously expected. It is increasingly clear that our world will soon experience an event called Peak Oil. The implications are beyond serious. The implications are almost beyond description. The implications are urgent, perhaps even more so than the problems of terrorism or global trade or domestic social contracts.

Why? Peak Oil is the moment in time when humanity has consumed half or more of the oil cheaply available for exploitation. Thereafter, the aggregate production of oil begins a permanent decline, its price begins a permanent climb, and the global economy begins to destabilize.

Oil doesn't just propel our cars. It lights, heats, cools and powers our homes. It makes every piece of plastic, prints every computer chip, carves every beam of steel and wood, prepares every bite of food we eat, and delivers every drop of water we drink. It enables you to read this email.

With this in mind, consider the following quotes. First, from one of the most highly regarded energy analysts in the investment banking world, Matthew Simmons ( http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/default.asp ):

"The situation is desperate. This is the world's biggest serious question... If you read The Perfect Storm , where a freak storm materializes out of the convergence of three weather systems, our energy crisis results from the same phenomenon.

"It is past time. As I have said, the experts and politicians have no Plan B to fall back on. If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the world's 6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our health -- greater than anyone could ever imagine."

Asked if there is a solution to the impending crisis, Simmons responded:

"I don't think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty."

In May 2004, Simmons explained that in order for demand to be appropriately controlled, the price of oil would have to reach $182 per barrel. With oil prices at $182 per barrel, gasoline prices would likely rise to $7.00 per gallon.

Matthew Simmons has been sounding this alarm for years. For a long while, he was a lone "voice in the wilderness." In the past year or so, however, many experts have begun echoing his sentiments. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, the vice-president of the Iranian National Oil Company has stated:

"The crisis is very, very near. World War III has started. It has already affected every single citizen of the Middle East. Soon it will spill over to affect every single citizen of the world."

The assertion that the world is about to enter Peak Oil is not just the view of its partisans. The New York Times, Washington Post, Newsweek and National Geographic have all covered this emerging crisis in recent months.

Given this context, I recommend that you check out four important books released in the past few months. They explore Peak Oil and its possible connections with the events of 9/11 and the foreign policy of the United States. While I don't agree with everything reported in these books, these authors' basic hypotheses deserve serious consideration by every citizen of this country.

The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, by Richard Heinberg,
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0865714827/qid=1099296132/sr=8-1/ref=pd_csp_1/002-8108282-2769634?v=glance&s=books&n=507846

The New Pearl Harbor, by David Ray Griffin, http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1566565529/qid=1098693705/sr=8-1/ref=pd_csp_1/103-6897556-1841456?v=glance&s=books&n=507846

Crossing the Rubicon, by Michael Ruppert, http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0865715408/qid=1098693960/sr=2-1/ref=pd_ka_b_2_1/103-6897556-1841456

The Terror Timeline, by Paul Thompson, http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0060783389/qid=1098693857/sr=8-1/ref=pd_csp_1/103-6897556-1841456?v=glance&s=books&n=507846



Tomorrow's Integral Revolution, Broadcasting Today at IntegralNaked.org

For these reasons and many others, people around the world are coming to realize that we are experiencing a very unique moment in history. When the trends of our energy supply, international crises, globalizing economy, world environment, pharmaceutical pollution, social conditions and technology advances are overlaid upon a chart of time, a startling pattern becomes plainly visible: lots of exponential curves all heading toward infinity or zero in a short period of time. This pattern foretells of something both frightening and strangely exciting at once. It reveals that in the next few years, humanity will experience a transformation like none other in our history -- a transformation that some of us now call "The Singularity".

"Singularity" is a concept from physics and mathematics that describes a condition in which things go so "non-linear" that they are totally unpredictable. Not just in practice, but in theory. When we enter a singularity, our imperfect ability to predict the future becomes not just more imperfect, but it nearly vanishes altogether, and whatever may emerge on the other side of imminent events is concealed by complexities far beyond our grasp. In other words, over the next few years -- at most, over the next couple of decades -- we will experience profound changes in our ways of life, yet we cannot really predict what those changes will be or how they will unfold.

If this perspective is accurate, and I believe it is, then people all over the world will soon be paying more and more attention to deeper and deeper questions. Questions about the challenges we all face. Questions about how to overcome them. Questions about what matters most. Questions about the future. Questions about the meaning and nature of life. Even questions about our destiny.

I've studied these kinds of questions for many years, and I'd like to share with you one of the most potent sources of insight and wisdom I've encountered.

Ken Wilber is perhaps the world's leading expert studying the deepest thread in the tapestry of life: the evolution of consciousness and its expressions in society and Nature. He is also one of the most insightful philosophers living today. I believe his work represents one of very few visions that are rugged enough and true enough to span across the coming singularity. In other words, I believe his life work represents one of the few visions that will guide us through the transformations that lie directly ahead.

Ken Wilber is the pioneer of the "Integral Model" -- a breakthrough theory describing how the subjective and objective aspects of our lives and our world interrelate. The Integral Model is rapidly becoming recognized as an essential intellectual tool for deeper understandings of evolution, human experience, human history and possible futures.

In 2000, I had the distinct honor of helping to sponsor the inception of Ken Wilber's Integral Institute -- a multi-disciplinary think tank tapping some of the brightest minds alive to apply the Integral Model to business, politics, art, spirituality, psychology, and other everyday domains of our lives. By 2004, two of the key objectives of Integral Institute have been achieved: establishing a leading destination on the Web for the captivating conversations occurring at the frontier of social evolution (http://integralnaked.org), and establishing the first-ever accredited university-level educational program in Integral Studies (http://www.integralinstitute.org/iu.htm).

IntegralNaked is a series of unedited, uncensored, live, and taped live conversations among the most influential, provocative, and important thinkers and leaders in today's world. These intense, raw, straightforward discussions -- delivered by audio streaming -- cover a comprehensive sweep of issues relevant in today's world -- from business to personal growth, from public education to meditation, from politics to ecology, from sexuality to spirituality.

One of Ken's most recent hits is his commentary with Larry Wachowski on the meaning of the paradigm-shattering film, The Matrix. Somewhere in the archives, you can also listen to my recent interview with Ken.

If you'd like to set your mind on fire with ideas that are changing your world, check them out at http://integralnaked.org .


A Vision of the Third Millennium

For several years, I've been working on projects intended to help address the deepest crises we all face. I invite you to check out drafts of some of my writings, available at http://firmage.org . Some are easy to read, others are more difficult to absorb. Right or wrong, they all reflect my view of the potential solutions we must explore.

Stay tuned for some important announcements about these efforts.

Be well,

Joseph P. Firmage